the Decline in real disposable income of the Russian population in the second quarter of 2020 made up 8% on a yearly comparison, according to Rosstat. Such a powerful negative quarterly dynamics of incomes of Russians were not recorded for all XXI century: the latest is commensurate fall rate was observed in 1999. However, some of the respondents “MK” experts believe that the record revenues can be broken in the following quarters and the peak incidence of this important social indicator has not yet passed.
of Course, the fall in real income (nominal income is adjusted for inflation less obligatory payments) in the second quarter were not only professionals, but also by all sensible people: after all, the pandemic, the mode of isolation, an artificial stop of economy could not pass in vain. But here’s the record, but rather record in their fall was an unpleasant surprise. During the previous crisis of 2008-2009 and 2014-2015 so steep the peak was not observed. The last time incomes fell more in 1999 – then at the end of the year they declined by 10%.
overall for the first half of 2020, according to Rosstat, real disposable incomes fell by 3.7% compared to the first half of 2019. It is noteworthy that this figure is not obtained without statistical manipulations of Rosstata. The Agency retroactively improved the data for the first quarter, replacing the previous results – 0,2% to +1,2%. Adjustment, most likely, connected with the payment of supplements to pensions at the end of March (including veterans).
Recall that the Ministry of economic development in the June version of the macroeconomic forecast marked decline in real disposable income in Russia in 2020 to 3.5%.
Can I trust the data of Rosstat in the fall in real incomes in the second quarter and how things will change the dynamics of this indicator? With these questions, “MK” turned to the experts.
Anton tabah, chief economist of “Expert RA”:
“to respond to current data of Rosstat on the real income of the population very carefully. On everyone not nazdravstvueshsya and current data to analyze is quite pointless. First, you need to consider that the pandemic is somewhere underpaid, somewhere paying the minimum wage, and somewhere down the income UI. Moreover, Rosstat does not have very good eyesight revenues in all segments. It takes into account in the statistics of big business and the public sector, the average business, but bad knows what’s going on in small business. Therefore, all vibrations which are fixed now, not very representative.
second, in the second quarter of 2020 has been a surge of inflation. By the end of the year inflation is likely to fall, and revenues will start to level off. This will occur both due to the recovery of the economy and at the expense of normalizati�� payments and financial flows. Therefore, it is likely that real incomes for the year will fall significantly less than in the second quarter.”
Anton POKATOVICH economist “BCS Premier”:
“In our view, the situation with incomes of the population outside the statistical realities may be much worse. Even taking into account measures of state support to overcome the situation with the decline in real disposable income of citizens in the II quarter of coronaries was problematic. Also consider that in the second half of the level of welfare of the Russian citizens will not be able to demonstrate any significant growth. At year-end the reduction in real disposable income can be 6-9%”.
Andrei LOBODA, a top Manager of IAC Alpari:
“On the restoration of incomes of the population will be only in the early fall, if Russia will avoid a second wave of coronavirus. The statistics of Rosstat, in my opinion, still reflects a moderately optimistic picture, however it does not cover the gray sector salaries, which last year confidently exceeded 10 trillion rubles.
Today, the only public servants left with their money. Even employees of state-owned corporations, translated into udalenku, remained without awards and other stimulating payments, they lost 40-50% of their income from April 2020.
there is No certainty that the worst is over. Russia has not yet experienced two shock of the year – the devaluation of the ruble and the spring rise in unemployment. Employers save on everything. In this connection, under the support of the population would cost to reduce the pit rate to at least 10% and to abolish the tax on Bank deposits and dividends on shares. Amid falling incomes in this year of personal inflation, the Russians may be about 2 times higher than the official, that is, can reach the range of 8-10%”.
