the Most perspective direction of export in the Eastern direction of Russian oil is China, where in April it has already managed to oust the Saudi oil – its main competitor. The increase of supplies to China contributes both to the increase in prices of oil producers from the Middle East, and the termination of the discounts granted by Saudi Arabia for their product, and the worsening of China’s relations with the United States. In addition, it is possible to increase the supply to South Korea, Japan and India, very quickly reducing oil consumption.
“naturally, Russia should take advantage of the fact more rapid recovery of demand in the Pacific rim countries, moreover, we have reserves in the transport capacity,” – said the head of the international practice group of KPMG for the provision of services to the oil and gas sector companies Anton Usov.
to Contain the increase in Russian oil deliveries to Asia-Pacific countries can extend infrastructure. In fact, now exports to the East is limited by the capacity of the pipeline “Eastern Siberia – Pacific ocean” is 80 million tons per year and oil production in the Okhotsk sea is about 20 million tons per year. However, only in China in 2019, Russia supplied 77,64 million tons.
it is Possible to transport oil by sea from the West. “But the tanker shipments from Baltic ports and the Black sea to the East will cost a pretty penny and will be more expensive to ship raw materials from the countries of the Arabian Peninsula,” – said the analyst of “Finam” Alexey Kalachev.
With gas the situation is similar. In addition to the gas pipeline “Power of Siberia”, not yet released its full capacity of 38 billion cubic meters per year (in 2020 it is planned to supply China with 5 billion cubic meters), Russia can send in APAC countries only liquefied natural gas (LNG). Russia now produces just under 30 million tonnes of LNG per year, equivalent to about 41,4 billion cubic meters of gas. Here again intervenes the geographical factor.
in Spite of active development of hydrocarbon exports to the East, while the main direction of Russian LNG supplies remains Western. Last year, the main exporter of Russian LNG to Asia-Pacific markets left the factory “Sakhalin-2”. The plant “Yamal LNG” sent a large part of the manufactured product in Europe. While at full strength will not work the Northern sea route and will not build any transit points for liquefied natural gas, the situation will not change.
do Not forget about competitors. “Strong market positions in Asia are our global competitors – Saudi Arabia for oil and Qatar for gas,” said Kalachev. He noted that actively expanding LNG production in Australia and the USA. Besides, the US is in the process of “trade wars” with China, China can impose obligations on purchases of energy, he said.
