this was stated by the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov in interview to “Vedomosti”. According to him, for the baseline scenario is used reduce GDP this year by 5%, which corresponds to the Bank of Russia estimates, and the average oil at $ 30 per barrel. Budget revenues will decrease by about 4 trillion rubles, and the construction budget will be replaced with surplus to deficit – expenditures exceed revenues by about 4% of GDP. The negative trend clearly visible and according to the Federal tax service, April tax revenues fell by a third.
“We don’t cut spending, even on the contrary, they increase, so will use the NWF funds and borrowings to Finance as current liabilities, and the anti-crisis program”, – said the speaker. From his words it follows that sources of funding will be the money from transactions in shares of Sberbank (up to 1.07 trillion rubles), with unexpended balances of last year (1.1 trillion rubles) and increase of the programme of borrowing through Federal loan bonds (probably 1.7-2.2 trillion rubles).
Federal budget Sequestration in such conditions it is hardly possible – it would lead only to more decline in the economy, says the head of “Fiscal policy” the Economic expert group Alexander Suslin. In fact, only possible redistribution of resources between more and less important items of expenditure, she adds.
the Strategy of the Ministry of Finance will remain open to existing challenges for the economy, new incentives will require new borrowings or alternative sources (e.g., waste unexpended budget balances), and themselves borrowing more flexible tactics to attract funds from investors, said analysts at ROSBANK. However, it is unclear how the Ministry of Finance plans to Finance the shortfall in income from reduced production and export of oil, they emphasize. According to analysts of the Bank, this amount can be 1-1. 2 trillion, but the funding is not formalized budget rule, that is, a possible buffer could be as the national wealth Fund, and market borrowings. The last option can significantly increase the pressure on the debt segment and interest rates, according to the Bank.
