Own revenues of Russian regions in April, the average dropped 30% and from the fall in oil prices and the country’s quarantine restrictions. To such conclusion scientists from the Higher school of Economics (HSE). The costs of the regions significantly increased due almost doubling in the cost of medical expenses. “Газета.Ru” understood, what does this mean for the regional economy of Russia.
Despite the fact that for the first four months of this year, consolidated regional budgets were executed with a positive balance of 261 billion rubles, the threat to the sustainability of the entire regional budget system is increasing. To such conclusion scientists of the Institute “Development Center” HSE in its periodic Bulletin “Comments on Government and Business” (have “Газеты.Ru”).
the Situation is aggravated by the fact that April is the peak of tax payments in Russia: among other things, tax agents shall pay advance tax for the first quarter (for the SP and those who are engaged in private practice), the tax on mineral extraction (met) in March, a third VAT and sales tax for the first quarter and many other fees.
According to analysts ‘ estimates the HSE, the revenue from income tax fell by 29%, from personal income tax by almost 20%, from the tax on the total income by 40% and property tax by 44%. In an interview with “Газетой.Ru” leading researcher of the Institute “development Center” HSE Andrew Cherniavsky explained that these figures indicate not only the obvious result of the shutdown of the business, but also the fall in the real wage — in the case of personal income tax.
“It also may indicate the growth of unemployment, since the labour market always reacts to crises in a similar way”, — said the scientist. Moreover, despite the gradual lifting of restrictions, the number of those who lost income in the country continues to grow.
For the first two weeks of June the number of officially registered unemployed grew by 16% and reached 2.42 million people. This Vladimir Putin told the Minister of labor and social protection Anton Kotkov.
According to scientists from the HSE, the most difficult situation with the drop in own revenues by region observed in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous district, the Astrakhan region and Republic of Komi — there this indicator has fallen by approximately 60% in comparison with last year.
Completing the list of “outsiders” Moscow, Khabarovsk and the Stavropol region — in these regions the fall in own revenues in April slightly exceeded 30%, which is also higher than in Russia on average.
With the income tax in some regions the situation is even worse. So, in the Republics of Tuva and Komi Republic and Krasnodar region, its supply has fallen by more than 80% compared to last year.
In a further 11 regions, the rate dropped in the interval from 60 to 80%. Among these regions, Perm Krai and Kamchatka, Adygea, Volgograd, Belgorod region. These indicators directly say about how these regions feels the local business.
In an interview with “Газетой.Ru” Andrey Chernyavsky from the HSE expressed the view that after the lifting of quarantine restrictions, the situation will gradually improve. However, a significant problem at this stage is that regions need to Finance not only the previously planned projects and incurred additional in connection with the pandemic.
for example, total medical spending in April increased by two times in comparison with the same period last year to 210 billion rubles.
“Money, as a rule, are added to a common pot, as the regions have not only their own income and subsidies from the Federal budget — the so-called transfers. Among them are subsidy — a subsidy that can be spent only for its intended purpose”, — said Andrey Chernyavsky.
One of the initiatives recently taken by the government to allow the regions to pay for the budgetary credits by the end of this year, and in the period from 2021 to 2024 to pay only 5% of debt annually. The corresponding decree signed in early may, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, will allow the regions to reduce the debt burden, especially given that the total amount of budgetary credits in the country, according to the Ministry of Finance, by early may has increased by 14% from 876,8 billion to $ 1 trillion.
In the “development Center” HSE believe that in the case that donor regions alone will solve all our economic problems, this year the total volume of support of the regions by the Federal center needs to be at least 1 trillion rubles.
In favor of the need for direct support to regional budgets, says the fact that in mid-may, Vladimir Putin has allowed the companies most affected by the pandemic industries do not pay taxes for the second quarter of this year, all excluding VAT, which applies to Federal taxes.
This means that in the first six months it is likely another failure in the statistics of regional income and, thus, their budgets.
Alexander Forest
