In his annual address to the nation and Parliament, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has complained that relations with Russia are not the same. What to expect after such a statement?
The message contained in the message of Alexander Lukashenko to Moscow, was so chaotic that in his speech, he even moved to some point on yelp and, in General, was very emotional. However, the message of this probably understood in Moscow are quite clear: the former relationship is not what your emotional attacks against Russia, mixed with the remembrance of “eternal friendship”, Lukashenko has reinforced a very specific action. In Belarus, announced the mobilization of reservists on a 25-day training camp in the border with Russia, Vitebsk region. To the border with Russia is contracted military equipment.
In Moscow, of course, perfectly able to read the signals, especially given the stories of President of a member country of the Union state that in the South still caught about a hundred of Russian “saboteurs”.
Also, now it becomes quite obvious: on 9 August, when presidential elections in Belarus, nothing will end, and everything just starts. A significant part of society does not agree with pochitayut votes in favor of Lukashenko. Followed by thousands of protests, not only in Minsk, but also throughout the country. And it will be a major test of loyalty to Lukashenka’s power structures. Because it is easy to disperse thousands of people with some difficulties — ten thousand, but fifty and more thousands will come if as many people disperse the force has become almost impossible. And this will be the beginning of the end of the 26-year-old regime.
Next possible scenario, which was played in his time in the socialist countries of Eastern Europe. If the crisis will go on increasing, and people from the streets and squares to disperse fails, then Lukashenko will have to make some concessions to the opposition. For example, the Belarusian popular front, who now does not want to support Svetlana Tikhanovski, United in their support for a significant part of the opposition.
If we will talk about how to share power or at least to pretend, one would have to announce early parliamentary elections and at least allow the Parliament some opposition members may edit the Constitution. However, the late Soviet experience in Eastern Europe shows that all such political movements occurred when it was too late. And the party seemed to be a puppet of the Communists had gained real political power and took away the power of those who seemed to sit in power forever.
Immediately the question arises about who will put Moscow in case of serious problems of Lukashenka? And if she can influence the situation in their favor, including in the direction of “Express check-out.��Noah integration”? Our foreign policy towards such regimes have traditionally been such as shift always happens to us unexpectedly, and “their” people in the running to replace the new elites little or not at all.
Not in our rules well in advance to build — well, just in case of fire, which here just reeks of the same opposition. Finally, there is a vivid indicator of “soft power” as the number of students abroad students. These people then will stand at the helm of governance, with which we will have to deal with.
So, the number enrolled in the last academic year, the Belarusian students in Russia amounted to 4328 employees as state employees and paid. The total number of students, Belarusians continue their education in our country amounted to 13 216.
However, in 2013-2014 in Russia, studied almost 25 thousand (24 916) students from Belarus. This number has been steadily falling in recent years. But the number of students in Poland students from Belarus is growing steadily. In 2012, there were 2344 people, and the past is already more than 7,5 thousand, and the number of received again almost equal with those who went to Russia.
These young people now take to the streets. And the struggle for their minds, we seem unable to lose. Current August in our relations with Belarus may become a turning point.
