the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, speaking yesterday at a rally in his support, said he would not allow the collapse of the country and its delivery. “We have built with you despite all the difficulties, despite all the shortcomings the beauty of the country. To whom you decided to give? If someone wants to give the country even when I’m dead, I won’t allow it,” – said the Belarusian leader. He stressed that the people gathered on Independence square, came here to “defend their country, freedom, their families, their sisters, their wives and children.” Lukashenka stressed that the elections in the country took place and their results showed his victory with 80 percent of the votes cannot be rigged. The Belarus President also urged the opposition to abandon confrontation. About why this statement may be for Lukashenka as the country’s leader, in a newspaper column sociologist, head of the centre “Regional studies” Dmitry Loboiko:

“The speech of Alexander Lukashenko at the meeting meaningful little interest. A set of “spell” about the salvation of the country and nation from foreign threats about the enemy at the borders, about the best years that he gave to the country. Sorry, Alexander G. did not specify, so they are the best.

To pay attention perhaps take a few details. In greeting, he thanked the residents of Minsk for the fact that they “tolerate it, non-capital resident”. Lukashenko thus demonstrates that Minsk is not the whole of Belarus. The passages about foreign influence, the Baltic tanks on the doorstep, the alleged threat of revision of borders of the country clearly indicate that Lukashenko will retain power at any cost. Even if it means waging war…

While it is clear that Lukashenko is not the President. Care – a matter of time. Main questions: how will be transit authorities how to do it legitimately and without blood and what role to play in the security forces?

How were protests in Belarus

Now Lukashenko is making a last attempt. Meets in front of the cameras, demonstrating that the country he left and stroke it broke. Calls Vladimir Putin with a request on assistance in the case of the mythical “foreign invasion”. Is organizing a rally in his support, collecting crowds of state employees in the main square of Minsk. But the system built for 26 years, bursting at the seams. The protest is growing, despite the repression. Businesses are on strike. Soldiers and officers are increasingly showing solidarity with the protest. Belarusian journalists from state media show disloyalty. Belarusian Ambassador to Slovakia Igor leschenya took literally an application for the post of foreign Minister in a future government without Lukashenka supporting the protesters.

But the trouble is that neither Lukashenko neither Svetlana Tikhanovski full presidents are not. She enjoys the sympathy of the street, but the source of power – the people, not the crowd. The only acceptable scenario is the appointment of new elections. But who and on what basis they will be appointed? Who will organize, conduct and count votes? Now these forces in Belarus there… Except security forces: the army, interior Ministry and the KGB.

The situation is complicated, and now it is not excluded that the conduct of the Lukashenko will have them. And then the country will have to declare a state of emergency, to determine the composition of a transitional government and appoint new elections of the President. The script is not the best. Especially considering that oversees the special forces of Lukashenka’s son Victor. This means that even such a tough scenario, preserving the peace in the Republic, strongly complicated”.