Especially for “the Russian newspaper” mark Goikhman, principal analyst at TeleTrade, analyzed the influence of various factors on the exchange rate and calculated it at the beginning of August:
– Now the optimism or pessimism of the currency market players is mainly determined by the development of a pandemic, warns the expert. – Positive is associated with a gradual overcoming of its acuteness, especially in Europe. This supported riskier assets throughout this week, including stocks, oil and the ruble.
However, at the end of the week an increasing impact on the market began to show renewed surge in the incidence. The US set records for the number of new cases COVID-19 in the southern States, the outbreak of coronavirus recorded in Hong Kong, Japan, Australia.
These two opposite trends coronavirus, intricately interwoven, slowed down the rally in risky assets, among which our ruble. They remained in a fragile balance. With this, the market will enter a new week.
Oil prices failed to hold at highs around 44 dollars a barrel and Brent fell below $ 43. Friday and a monthly report from the International energy Agency (IEA) came to conflicting perspectives. The IEA has raised its forecast for oil demand in 2020 by 0.4 million barrels a day to 92.1 million. The Agency also warned of the risk of reduction of demand due to the fact that “the pandemic is not under control.”
Such contradictions will affect the ruble and 13 July. Monday is not expected to significant events. Probably small fluctuations of the Russian currency in the current range of 70.3-71.4 ruble per dollar and 79-80,7 ruble per Euro.
during the week are important for the movement of the ruble may prove to be critical, affecting the other currencies, commodity prices, stock indexes. On Tuesday 14 July will be released inflation data in the US and Chinese trade balance and the monthly report of OPEC.
Wednesday will publish data on oil reserves in the US on Thursday – retail sales in the United States, China’s GDP for the second quarter and industrial production. On the same day, the meeting will be the European Central Bank. An important factor for investor sentiment is the fact that in mid-July kicks off the quarterly reporting season of big corporations actively influencing stock markets.
overall, the week could be quite volatile for the ruble because it will include many uncertain consequences of the events and moods of the markets. The range of possible movements constitute 68.9 – 72.5 ruble per dollar and 78.3-81.6 ruble per Euro.
In the future the end of July-beginning of August on the ruble, increasing the negative impact can have the following factors.
First. A period ends the payment of dividends by Russian companies, which gives a high demand for rubles.
Second. Foreign derately Russian shares after receipt of ruble dividends will convert them into foreign currency.
Third. After reducing the key rate of the Central Bank gradually reduces the profitability and attractiveness of investments in Russian bonds by non-residents.
Fourth. Central Bank reduces sales of the currency, “budget rule”, in comparison with previous months.
And finally, the fifth factor increasing the demand for foreign currency as and when new supplies of imported goods after the release from isolation.
These five circumstances can lead to the weakening of the ruble in the coming weeks. The rate may move in the direction of the dollar 73-74 and 82-83 per Euro.
