the Gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia in nominal terms in April was 6.3 trillion roubles — 28% (2.4 trillion roubles) less than in the same month in 2019 — the report of the Ministry of Finance on execution of the Federal budget. The collapse of the economy due not only to the regime of self-isolation, but also drastically cheapened oil: the average price of Urals oil fell to the $18.2 per barrel, against $71,5 a year earlier. Behind all these figures is the material catastrophe that has befallen millions of families. Those who have no savings, and those in the country 65%, survive off the land. The others rushed to withdraw cash in banks: according to the Central Bank, last month in an average day from the accounts of individuals goes from 10 billion to 50 billion rubles.
the Finance Ministry gave the first official estimate of economic dynamics in April, after authorities declared non-working days on the background of the pandemic. We are talking about nominal GDP, calculated in current prices. In contrast, increased real GDP is in constant prices, adjusted for inflation. Its parameters will be known only at the end of may, after the Ministry of economic development will conduct a study on proprietary methodology: after examining the statistics on gross value added of the main sectors of the economy. But it is obvious that the decline in real GDP for April will be at least 20%. Such a failure, though expected in connection with the national regime of self-isolation, the domestic economy did not know the “dashing” 90s.
Further, according to the experts, if will be better, not much. GDP will decline for four consecutive quarters in annual terms, the maximum decline of almost 11% will be in the second quarter of 2020, as is predicted by the development Center of the Higher school of Economics. According to him, annual growth will resume not earlier than the 2nd quarter of 2021, and the pre-crisis level will be restored at best in the mid-2022-th.
“a 28% drop — a figure that corresponds to reality. Especially considering the fact that in April the performance of the whole number of branches has fallen by 70-90%, — said for “MK” the data of the Ministry of Finance, the Director of the Institute of strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev. — We are still saves the cumbersome structure of the economy: many commodity companies, many enterprises with a continuous cycle: they somehow pull GDP”.
“any improvement of the situation should not wait. On the one hand, in may of the quarantine began to emerge of industrial, construction projects. However, like Nikolaev, — this month Russia has started the implementation of strict obligations to reduce oil production. Consumer demand remains at a depressingly low level. Many people left without income and had to spend all their savings, no money for life. The money that families with children will receive material assistance, aboutleggat their situation, but only marginally and briefly. Trade, catering, tourism, aviation and rail transportation — all this will long remain in strong minus”.
“it All depends on how soon the economy will bottom out, says corresponding member of RAS, scientific Director of the Institute of Economics Ruslan Grinberg. — It is clear that the second quarter will be the most difficult. We are waiting for a prolonged and deep recession. Consumer demand is useless, because the state allocates money to people in the hour of a teaspoon”.
According to Greenberg, he does not believe in any pod, in the “omnipotence” of the NWF. Potbelly is the only foreign exchange reserves lying dormant, and financial support for the economy and society can create in other ways. In any case, the extent of the cash payments to the population will have to increase, though, because unemployment is growing at record rates, and employees in small and medium-sized businesses out of money. “If it’s not responsive, it is not excluded that the authorities will have to face not only economic devastation, but also the consequences of social unrest,” says Greenberg.
the Record of the April minus GDP — not just a boring number in the statistic account of the economic departments. The fall of the economy has become greater than ever population. And people react to the situation in accordance with his understanding of financial behaviour: massively withdraw money from their deposits in banks. It is evidenced by the latest data of the Central Bank. Interviewed by “MK” experts attribute this behavior to two factors: people simply did not have enough current assets to life in a pandemic plus there is instinctive fear that in the midst of the unfolding economic crisis the government can somehow freeze or expropriate contributions. “The fact that today, with Bank accounts on a daily basis funneling tens of billions of rubles, says the rapid contraction of the middle class,” — says Ruslan Grinberg.