Analysts of the international consulting company Boston Consulting Group (BCG)predicted in Russia a series of quarantines that will last until 2021. According to experts, this scenario is most likely.
According to the forecast, in Russia from time to time there will be wave of infection by the coronavirus. Accordingly, the government will be forced to resort to quarantine: the economy will then open, to close again. Such a regime experts call the “push-pull”. He’ll hold out until then, until there is a vaccine COVID-19 – until next year.
Signal the beginning of such a scenario will be a wave of bankruptcies of small and medium business. Prolonged the restrictive measures will subsequently lead to a reduction in services and retail, the fall in demand for property and reduction in the production and wholesale trade.
“In this scenario, the government needs to learn how to manage cycles, to limit morbidity and to minimize damage to the economy”, – TASS quotes an excerpt from the study.
To a lesser extent, but also likely scenario of “rebound” – full stop epidemic without re-wave. The economy of the country will be suspended for a period of two months, after which recovery can begin. The process will be accompanied by rising unemployment due to the closure of small and medium-sized businesses.
the Least likely scenario, experts consider “critical decline,” and “second 90”. In the first case the crisis drags on, that will lead to stop of production and a massive liquidity crisis in the economy. In this case, Russia will lose up to 10-15% of GDP. The “second 90” requires long-term recession, however, the preconditions for this BCG analysts do not see.
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