The protests taking place in Belarus, little impact on local stock market. The rate of the national currency against the U.S. dollar on the stock exchange decreased only on 0,4%, to 2.46 BYN/$. The index of government and corporate bonds remained at the levels of last week. Due to low stock market liquidity imperceptible reaction and in a few stocks traded on the exchange. However, on a more developed Russian market of paper began to decline amid reports that the Agency Standard & Poor’s may lower the credit rating of the country.Statistics and chronicle protivostoyaniya dalbergias market in Belarus, including the stock component, is rather poorly developed. The country has two exchange — the Belarusian universal commodity exchange (BUCE) and the Belarusian currency and stock exchange (BCSE). In the first trade goods, raw materials and other material resources. On the second there is trading currency, government and corporate bonds, equities and derivatives. Is the most liquid currency market. According to the BCSE, in July the trading volume in US dollars amounted to $1.12 billion In the stock section volume was almost three times less — $435 million Of which $434,2 million on bonds (83% public, 17% commercial) and only $0.7 million for equities. On the futures market the last deal was made in March 2015.Events occurring in the country, has caused the growth of the exchange activity, however, not all segments of the market. The average daily trading volume dollar since the beginning of the week exceeds $120 million, against $50 million average in July. However, the Belarusian ruble weakened against the U.S. currency just 0.4%, to 2.46 BYN/$. The volume of trading with government and commercial debt securities remained at the levels of July. While the price index of government securities market IBYR GOV on Wednesday fell by 15.5 percent, to 21.06 points. On Wednesday, the index rose by symbolic 0.05% to 21,07. A similar index of corporate bonds dropped 3 Aug only 1.7%, to 7.42 points, where it remained until 13 August. With the shares since the beginning of the week was only 21 deals totaling $226 thousand, “the Stock market of Belarus is rather poorly developed. The reasons for this are the enormous proportion of state property and the specifics of the economic model of the country as a whole. The volume of this market can be compared to small capitalization companies traded in the United States. Liquidity of shares in Belarusian companies is very low, that is, to sell them at a certain moment can be difficult, says investment strategist “BKS the Prime Minister” Alexander Bakhtin.Thursday bonds of Belarusian issuers that are traded in Russia, also held steady. However, during today’s trading quotes went down. The cost of five-year ruble bonds, which ��Belorussia placed on the Moscow exchange in may, fell 2.2 percent of face value, their yield rose to 9.4% per annum. “For comparison, the bonds of large Russian companies and banks usually traded with a yield above 6% per annum,— General Director UK “Arikapital” Alexey Tretyakov.— Given the fact that the main part of the holders of bonds of the Russian investors in case of deterioration of interstate relations, prospects for the maintenance of this issue, obviously, will also deteriorate.”In such conditions we had and enterprise editions. So, the bonds are “Retail Bel Finance”, traded the whole week above 100% of face value on Thursday, falling to 95% of face value, and at the end of trading stayed around 98.4 per cent of the nominal value. The trading volume of bonds exceeded $1.37 million, more than ten times higher than in the environment. Additional trigger for the sale of Belarusian securities were news that Agency S&P sees risks for the economy because of the protests. “On Wednesday the Finance Ministry of Belarus and the Central Bank gave comments on monetary and fiscal policy, which implies that the budget deficit could rise to 5 billion rubles. the Risks of fuel supply because of the sanctions Western countries, in my opinion, minimal, but investors may be scary,” notes the analyst of “freedom Finance” Evgeny Mironyuk.According to Eugene Mironyuk, Belarus is moderate debt burden (26% of GDP), but high interest rates on debt servicing and high inflation. Due to the lack of data on quarterly GDP growth, analysts are unable to assess the impact of the pandemic on export and domestic demand. “Risks to the economy include the fact that the country’s trade balance is negative. Without inflows, the national currency will tend to weaken. Exports this year are weak, in April it fell to a minimum 2017 — $1.8 billion. moreover, the increased devaluation expectations, increased demand for cash currency that does not add optimism. Conservative investors ‘expectations can become negative, if the political situation will lead to a noticeable deterioration in the economy”,— said Eugene Mironyuk.The Department of Finance
