the richest country in the world has ceased to prosper. It is caused by the coronavirus. Before the start of large-scale quarantine in the United States the world’s largest economy has stumbled, and the longest in its history the ten-year recovery phase came to an end.
In the first quarter U.S. GDP declined by 4.8% in annual terms, showed the first estimate published on Wednesday. Economists have no doubt that it is not a one-time failure, and six months of recession, the American economy is assured.
Because the main damage from the quarantine will have just on the second quarter — April, may and June. Its results will be announced in the midst of the election campaign for the November presidential election, in which Donald trump expects to be re-elected for a second term.
the US is not alone in their suffering. Third economy in the world — Chinese — shrunk in the first quarter by 6.8%, after nearly 50 years of growth rate to 15% per year. And the second largest economy in the world — the European Union expects a more substantial decline.
in Poor countries even worse. Rich the withdrawal of capital, denying them funds for development, and their primary products — raw materials — cheaper on the eyes because of falling demand in developed markets. One the collapse of the oil market, on my knees several producer countries raw materials.
the first Chinatown, give an idea of what to expect the Americans — the epidemic has covered them a few weeks after the Chinese flash. Now the United States is a confident first place in the number of infections and deaths.
Economists expect a rebound in the second half of the year, but are sure that it does not compensate for the decline in full. In addition, recovery depends on how long the quarantine and how quickly the US will return to a normal life. And then all the cards forecasters wandering confusing two variables: the virus and the policy.
the Decision to relax the quarantine will be to make policy in the election year. The virus struck at the heart of the election campaign trump, and he’s eager to return the economy to growth.
last week, he promised “an incredible recovery” after the recession, but admitted that waiting for him is not earlier than the last quarter. That is, after the elections — the first GDP estimate will be published only at the end of January.
But all these predictions are made based ambulance and decisive victory over the virus and do not consider the danger of a second wave.
If it happens on the return to the production and accumulation of wealth can not imagine. The level of decline in the event of a return of a pandemic fall-winter you can judge by the recent forecast of the International monetary Fund.
Reduction income due falling business activity is exacerbated by the surge in costs. The US has already ��have udelili almost $ 3 trillion to fight the virus and support the victim of the quarantine, businesses and residents. To Fund it the world’s largest debtor will have to increase the budget deficit and to actively occupy.
