In Russia, there is a short-term surge in demand for cars after almost two months of inactivity of the dealer network. Against this background, the President has delayed the transition to a shortened work week until the end of summer. Interviewed by “Kommersant” manufacturers and dealers agree that sales compared to the disastrous performance of the April—may increased, however, attribute this to temporary factors pent-up demand and expansion of state support. The real picture will be clear only in September. While in the industry believe that by the end of the year the market will drop by 30%, and some players appreciate this scenario as optimistic.AvtoVAZ has delayed the transition to a four-day working week from June 29 to August 31 in connection with short-term market movements, the company said. The group said the growth of orders for new cars in July and August against the backdrop of expanding state support of demand and the gradual removal of quarantine restrictions. Lada traditionally receives the largest share of preferential car loans, and subject to the procurement (the volume of all manufacturers — not less than 33 thousand cars to 70 billion rubles.). Since June, the program budget lending grew by RUB 7 billion to RUB 17.5 billion, and the maximum acquisition price of a car increased from 1 million to 1.5 million rubles. However, despite state support, expectations of AVTOVAZ remain pessimistic for the year, the market could shrink by 30%. The company has delayed the transition to four-day week, is going to introduce her August 31 in the case of negative development of the situation on the market in the fall. What anti-crisis measures would not avoid the decline of the industry, admitted June 10, and the head of the Ministry of industry and trade Denis Manturov.Short-term surge in demand in late may and June due to launch of dealer network and celebrate companies who have not received access to state support. Thus, in Nissan, which on the background of falling demand has halted the pipeline before the end of the month, also spoke about the positive dynamics of demand on the background of the official start of work of dealers and cancel permits in certain key regions of the country. But, note to Nissan, talk about a long term trend yet. The Toyota plant is operating normally, the group does not plan to cut staff. Without state support works and Mitsubishi, which also state that there is a “specific demand” in late may — early June, linking it with the effect of delayed purchases and private incentive programs.But in General, expect a return to former sales volumes in the short term is not necessary to believe in Mitsubishi. Do not contribute to the recovery of the market and the rumors about the second wave of the disease, according to the company: people will try to create or save a financial safety cushion, not to spend money. Forecast of the market fall by 30% call it optimistic.The effect of sediments occurred duringx demand will be short-lived, joint Chairman of the Board dealer “Avilon” Andrey Pavlovich. Now the dealers sell the cars with very big discounts and expect that in the near future the market will continue to fall: “Buyers instantly will not be able to recover, and, by the way, even in connection with the abolition of the isolation we do not see any rush of visitors in our showrooms, everything is going normal pace.” For the year he also expects a decline of 30%. Government support and understanding of customers that the machines will soon rise in price, given a certain positive effect, says the General Director GK “alarm-motors” Roman Slutsky.Pent-up demand will last for two to three months, said the General Director GK “Avtospetstsentr” Denis Petrunin, and the results of the June will exceed the results of April and may combined, but will be approximately 30% below June last year. More confident show the dynamics of sales in the premium segment and the mass segment, Kia, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Skoda and Nissan. Forecast a 30% drop he also believes a positive balance. About the real trends of the market will speak in July-August, says the Manager of KLA-RRT Sergei Sevast’yanov, “the Two main markets — Moscow and St. Petersburg only began to open up, and in a traditionally low season. While it is possible to speak approximately about 50 percent recovery of the volume of deals in February and about 35-40% by March”. He also emphasizes that many dealers are now sacrifice profitability to increase sales. In June taking into account weekends, which negatively affect demand, sales could fall by 20-30%, says Vladimir Bespalov from “VTB Capital”, for the year — 20%. Real picture of the market will be visible until the autumn, he says, because August is traditionally the low season because of the holidays.Olga Nikitinac pent-up demand at the beginning of June is observed not only in passenger cars segment and commercial. This, in particular, say at MAN Truck&Bus. Further development of the situation, I think there will depend on the exchange rate, the situation of the epidemiological limitations and restore activity of customers. The results of the June estimate is still early, and the market situation subject to rapid changes, continue there, but rise in demand in the second quarter should not wait for epidemiological constraints. Damage to the market by the pandemic coronavirus to be evaluated, enclosed in MAN.The Chairman of the Committee of the AEB commercial transport, General Director of MAN Truck&Bus, Jan aichinger, in a negative scenario anticipates a decline in the market of trucks over 16 tons by 14% in 2020. Good first quarter results partially counterbalance the negative effect of a closed economy, he explains, and 2021-m drop in the market can be up to 21%, as the economic recovery will take time. One of the effectiveeducational tools to help market komtrans — state support for the leasing industry.In KAMAZ, the products of which are subject to higher procurement, it is expected that in June the market segment of trucks over 14 tons, according to the registration of vehicles, will exceed the level in may (2.8 thousand trucks), but will not reach the April figure (3.6 thousand units) and will be in the range of 3-3,2 thousand cars. There are counting on long-term revival of the market through measures to stimulate demand on the part of the state. In June, the plant KAMAZ works according to the usual schedule: for July and August, the package of orders formed in full, but according to the rules of the decision on the mode of operation for the next month is taken for five days before it happens. At year-end, most likely, the market will not reach the figures of last year, and what will be the depth of the fall is hard to say, they say in the Russian company.The GAZ group, which operates in the segment of light commercial vehicles (LCV) and buses, stressed that the commercial vehicle market is falling most rapidly during the economic crises and slower. He is now in a strong degree of uncertainty: “At present we see no factors that would indicate a recovery in demand in the LCV segment”. Gas is still a difficult situation with orders, they say in the concern: in June, the loading of the plant fell by more than two times compared to June last year. The enterprise from June 19 switches to four-day work schedule, at the end of June — as well as a forced measure because of falling demand — introduced two-week simple during which employees will leave in corporate holiday. In the same chart will work Pavlovsky bus plant: the volume of Groove orders for June fell by 60%.Olga Nikitina
