In Belarus proposed to hold a joint referendum on the future of the Union state. This broadcast youtube channel Zasuverenitet said a Belarusian activist Andrei Ivanov.
“the Belarusian Patriotic forces took the decision to initiate a referendum for the speedy re-establishment of a single Union of the Fatherland. Because it is a swing on a swing: it is necessary, it is not necessary, people want – people do not want. We have to show that the people want,” said the activist.
According to him, the Belarusian social activists initiating the “first all-Union” referendum, wish on the Russian side also registered the initiative group.
“to Sochi Lukashenko said: “President Putin is ready, what people?”. So let will carry out this work! Let’s create homeland by the force of the people”, – said Ivanov.
Lukashenko is not stated, loud statements as Pro-Russian and anti-Russian nature it’s part of his political image. But if it comes to actual steps? What can you say population. How in Belarus, the popular idea voiced this Ivanov?
− Andrey Ivanov is a Belarusian social activist, views close to the NODE and BER, – said Belarusian political analyst Kirill Asimco.
– That is, organizations quite specific, built around conspiracy theories, “external control”, “secret world government”. It is widely known in narrow circles, only among those who are also interested in this whole subject, but such a community in Belarus is very small – a few dozen people.
This is not the first “loud” initiative this public, but it is unlikely to be taken seriously. This year Andrey Ivanov declared intention to run for President, but no wide public response this initiative has not caused.
<a href = "SP": — And what kind of "Belarusian Patriotic forces"? How serious are you? Will you give them to organize such a referendum?
“Belarusian Patriotic forces” is a coalition of social movements of the above kind. Ideologically there are conspiracy theories and Stalinism. The rhetoric is quite divorced from reality. They are few and consist mainly of older people, pensioners. For young people, for the General public they are unattractive and do not play any significant role in Belarusian politics.
With confidence I can say that the referendum they organize not give. Yes, and the initiators themselves have hardly enough resources to organize it all, to collect signatures.
<a href = "SP" — Lukashenko in Sochi said: "President Putin is ready, what people?". That is, Lukashenka is ready to unite?
− Lukashenko expresses a rather different thesis about the development of the Union statetion. Itself the Belarusian authorities, in my opinion, is not ready to unite. Because the Union and even the full implementation of the Agreement of 1999 (with the politico-legal integration) means to give a part of powers to supranational bodies. Not ready for it neither in Minsk, nor in Moscow – who wants under the existing political models to give part of his powers?
<a href = "SP": — And what, by the way, people? Would you agree?
− Sociology shows that the majority of Belarusians would not agree to a full merger into a single state.
Slightly more than half of Belarusians stand for Union with Russia while maintaining the sovereignty of the two countries, and a significant portion (especially young people) and does have Pro-Western views on the development of the country. There is a tendency that supporters of the EU in Belarus is gradually becoming more. This is due to the attractive image and cultural hegemony of Europe and the United States: there are trends. As well as the dominance of Pro-Western anti-Russian forces in the Belarusian informational space, especially on the Internet.
<a href = "SP": — And the Russians? Belarusian social activists initiating the "first all-Union" referendum, wish on the Russian side also registered the initiative group. Should I wait for such a group in Russia?
− Could be created, but again the question: how will it be serious? The Belarusian initiators probably has good connections with the Russian “nodosae”, “cobourne” and their ilk. Maybe there will be some initiatives that do not exclude.
<a href = "SP": — How, in your opinion, the idea of such a referendum is relevant today and was relevant 20-25 years ago? What changed?
For 20-25 years a new generation grew up Belarusians and Russians, who have no common (Soviet, post-Soviet, all-Russian) identity. Among young people in Belarus, the weakest desire to unite: Russia is perceived as just one of the neighbors, even close.
A lot depends on more mundane issues. It is no secret that Russia has a less attractive image than that of the West. For example, in terms of welfare, infrastructure and so on. It is also in Belarus affect the geopolitical orientation of the population.
For older generations of Russia is a natural ally. They went through life, so there is a spiritual connection above, saying, “let Russia is somewhat inferior to the West in terms of life, but our brothers live there, and for the West we’re strangers”. Some young people, too, so configured, so we can say that the geopolitical preferences of the rest of the value that those who are more important than material gain – they are for the West, to whom the spiritual bond of our peoples – Russia.
Of course, 20-25 years, when the electoral core was still the Soviet people, the referendum would be relevant and would bring a positivee results. But today, they probably would have been different.
In modern Belarus political activists is dangerous to have Pro-Russian views, —says the analyst of Fund of development of civil society institutions “public Diplomacy” Evgeny Valyaev.
— These views around since 2014 are considered to be very reactionary. If the Belarusian authorities will not go to dialogue with Moscow, to discuss a referendum on reunification with Russia is not necessary. Political activists who advocate such a referendum may be subject to pressure from the Belarusian power structures. We can remember, was prosecuted in Belarus Pro-Russian journalists. Yuri Pavlovets, Dmitry Alimkin and Shiptjenko in their publications just criticized the turn of Minsk in the Pro-Western and nationalist sentiment. Current political commentators of the official Minsk came from nationalist circles, until recently, they were followers of the ideas litvinstva. Today Minsk takes such people as supporters of the Eurasian Union, but they are hypocritical and opportunistic positions can not be trusted.
The referendum concerning the merger can only run the official authorities of Belarus. The main obstacle to the possible unification of Russia and Belarus is Alexander Lukashenko, who regularly speculates on the attitudes about the reunion for a price of lobbying in the trade with Russia. Already there was a rule: if the Belarusian President said something about a single country, the capital of our common homeland and one people – so he is preparing the ground for the discussion of energy prices. As soon as Alexander Lukashenko understands that discounts will not be that we hear a completely different speech. For example, about the fact that Russia and Belarus – two different States, allies they are not, and that Moscow interferes in the Affairs of Minsk.
In 2014, when Belarus was recorded a very sharp transition to the rails of nation-building, accompanied by pressure on the Russian language and Russian identity, Alyaksandr Lukashenka has increasingly criticized Russia and its policy, showcasing the often rather hostile discourse. Negotiations on prices for energy pass between our countries are always very nervously. These talks always end with the announcement of the President of Belarus that Minsk will seek new suppliers. We are accustomed to the fact that this negotiation process ends up well and the parties come to a compromise, but at the end of last year something went wrong in the standard scenario.
Then, Moscow and Minsk agreed on a very active road map for the implementation of the project of the Union state. When the discussion arose political differences, which were sent back��tion point of the current situation between the two countries. Now we can say that relations between Russia and Belarus are in the coldest point in the last 20 years. Until you have resolved the political differences, the project of the Union state will again be frozen for an indefinite period. If the negotiations do not to anything to bring in the near future, then this will affect the format of the Eurasian economic Union.
It is possible to assume that Moscow in exchange for further trade preferences requires the deepening of integration within the Union state. A number of road maps inspire Lukashenko questions, he sees them as the loss of Minsk national and economic sovereignty. Although the dependence of the Belarusian economy on Russia is difficult to overestimate. The approach “you – your, we – and its” no longer acceptable to Moscow. This approach has not provided any economic prerequisites, nor linguistic, nor cultural.
<a href = "SP": — And the population-then it refers to the notion of unification?
— Sociology shows that the Belarusians are fewer Russians support the policy of the Association. Any negotiations about the unification cause in Belarus protests by Pro-Western opposition. In Russia the theme of the Union are quieter, though after the Crimea could increase the number of skeptics who believe that such a process can be financial too complicated. The Russian Federation allows its national enclaves to live quite separately. In an example, the Republic of Tatarstan, their format could become the prototype for Minsk: two official languages, its own Constitution, its own political realities and peculiarities of public administration. The Minsk will get access to the large Russian market, will have access to the Russian Finance, credit and rates.