the Main factor of uncertainty, of course, is the pandemic of mers, the epicenter of the United States to remain here for several months. Ahead of the election campaign, which America has never seen. Season primaries this time had just begun, and already it is clear that the main campaign, which usually unfolded in the United States since the end of August, when the two major parties officially named their candidates, will take place in a highly abridged format.
the 77-year-old Joseph Biden, the Democratic candidate, unsafe in the traditional manner for candidates to travel around the States and communicate with voters. And because of the age of Biden almost any public appearance gives “pearls”, giving a reason for ridicule Republicans. By and large, his campaign strategy is to give Donald Trump to “fire” in a series of crises.
it Seems the crucial role of the pandemic in the upcoming elections realized even trump, who initially just waved the warnings of doctors, irritated that forced the lockdown squander the economy and knocks from his hands the trumps for re-election.
as a result, the President of the United States, categorically refused to wear a mask, last week suddenly appeared in her in public and called the wearing of masks Patriotic. Further – more, President, more recently, against the advice of physicians who organized the rally in front of supporters, has now decided to cancel the Republican Convention in Florida, scheduled for August in order “not to set a bad example”. Trump, who promised “to re-make America the great” to win we have to convince voters of two things. First, that economic growth before the pandemic was it was his merit, and then he like no other knows how to rebuild the country after the victory over the coronavirus. Secondly, that in a catastrophic situation with COVID-19 in the country do not blame the Federal government, but someone else – be it the opposition, the authorities of the States or China.
Another challenge for all levels of government was the unrest and riots on racial grounds that has engulfed the country since the end of may. It seemed that the protests had receded, but over the weekend Seattle has once again become the arena of fierce clashes between police and activists .
In these contexts, elections can be a referendum on the crisis performance of the authorities in the presidential and other levels. The American press and sociologists all the more boldly predicted “blue wave” landslide victory of candidates of the democratic party in the presidential and parliamentary elections, which would “elephants” to get control of not only the White house but also both houses of Congress (Approx. RG: the blue color and the elephant is the official symbol of the Democrats).
According to the aggregator Real Clear Politics, trump average behind Biden about 9 points: 40.9% vs 49.6. And authoritative resource FiveThirtyEight believes that the Democrats in the elections can receive up to 60 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, where they are now in the minority.
At the same time, the results of opinion polls about trump after his nobody predicted victory in 2016 should be taken with certain amendments. As it is necessary to take into account the fact that in the conditions of an indirect electoral system in the United States the President can be someone who received a minority of votes. Therefore, the delay of trump from Biden does not mean automatic defeat. In addition, we should not discount the possibility of new surprises, as well as providing in 2016, the victory trump the phenomenon of his “silent supporters” who from time to time does not say out loud about their preferences, but then at the last moment tipped the scales in his favor.
the Candidate in US presidents and entertainer Kanye West, who suffers, as it turned out, bipolar disorder, continues to shock the American public. Going on the November elections from the newly created “Party birthday” (Birthday Party) rapper crying and swearing obscenely at the meeting with voters, promises everyone a million dollars for the birth of the child and threatens to turn extremely tense presidential campaign 2020 in a real circus. The current rating of West 2% is within statistical error, but in the history of elections USA “third candidates” played a significant role, sometimes predetermining the outcome of the struggle for the White house.
the Most successful of “independent candidates” was Texas billionaire Ross Perot. In the elections of 1992 he was voted nearly 20 million voters (about 19 percent). It is believed that the Texan “bitten” conservative votes from Republican George H. W. Bush, which led eventually to the victory of Democrat bill Clinton.
earlier in 1968, the candidate of the American independent party George Wallace received 13.5 votes and, importantly, 46 electoral votes (Pen not one elector did not vote). This was enough for the candidate of the democratic party, Hubert Humphrey lost to Republican Richard Nixon.
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