– the Ruble has to choose what to follow. Financial markets for the most part maintain a positive attitude: Nasdaq 100 almost every day in July, rewriting historical highs, the Chinese index of blue chip China A50 adds 15% since the beginning of July. On the world currency market the dollar is slowly but surely receding all the time, which also reflects the recovery of demand for risky assets.
Very often, when such input oil adds even more rapidly than financial markets, because increasing production is not so simple. However, the oil fails to break the “glass ceiling” that has formed at $43 per barrel in the last month. The previous week attempt to break above all also encountered increased sales. The situation looks even more alarming if you pay attention that on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday at the Brent recorded all lower intraday lows, but the trend of recovery quotes from April has been called into question. Very high risks that slipping on oil from the beginning of the month is the prologue to a new sale. This means that in respect of the ruble, investors are much more cautious.
the Growth of stock markets is due to the concentration of investors in few selected securities of technology companies and several retailers and manufacturers who are regarded by investors as a “growth stories”. Simultaneously, the capital cautiously emerge from other companies, and the oil industry (the driver of the ruble and the Russian economy) remains under the limit of quotas requiring 20% reduction in production volumes.
in addition, the markets still audible comments about the end of the rebound in the broad indexes. This forces investors to fix the items that were made based on the rebound of the markets due to monetary easing. Despite the breakthrough in China’s markets, capital flowed out of China for the last 11 weeks. The same applies to Russia, where OFZ come under the sale in spite of external growth drivers.
at least investors pause, trying to figure out whether to bet on the broad market growth, a rebound bogged down, becoming exemplary in some cases, empty in others.
