the Fall in exports is to be expected, but the main reasons, according to analysts, is not a pandemic coronavirus, and the pending impact of adverse factors is the depreciation of the ruble and the fall in world demand for goods and services.
In world practice, the reduction of the national currency leads to increased exports, but in Russia things are different. “Historically, falling commodity exports are almost always pulls and non-oil. And the weakening of the ruble does not help to stimulate it. The nature of this phenomenon we have yet to understand,” – said the representative of ATWT.
non-primary non-oil export (NOE), estimates of the center, will decline by 12% according to the results of the April-June 2020. The agricultural sector, which in the first quarter had a positive impact on the statistics of foreign trade, who will be the driver of growth. By the summer of his contribution to the NOE is traditionally reduced. Usually at this time of the year to actively export products machinery and chemical industry, but for more than a year, these industries are showing a decline or stagnation of exports.
According to one of the latest versions of the draft plan to rebuild the economy, which read “WG” to the end of 2021, the expected increase in NOE at least 5%. This figure could be much higher, said Yuri Shurygin, Executive Director of the Association of small and medium-sized exporters. Especially given the expected poor results this year: the total volume of exports may be reduced by 36.9% compared to the year 2019. This assessment is presented of the economic development Ministry updated the forecast of socio-economic development up to 2023.
“For most exporters the subject of deliveries abroad faded into the background. The main task now is to survive in a crisis. A lot of problems with the staff, refinancing”, – said Shurygin. By the end of the summer, the Association expects the export recovery of the stream.
Positively evaluate the activity of exporters in the Russian export center (REC). “Multiples have increased the request to search for a partner abroad for 4 months in 2020, the number of such services increased by 140%,” – said Stanislav George, Vice President REC. For this service the volume of supported exports increased 2 times and amounted to more than 700 million rubles.
the Situation is constantly changing, said ACVT, and forecast at any time can be recalculated.
