Natan Eismont, candidate of technical Sciences, leading scientific researcher, space research Institute (IKI RAS):
I am Sure that neither in 2022 or 2024-m, nor even in the next ten years neither our people nor the American people on the moon will not fly. All specific dates Elon musk and NASA regarding the landing of man on the moon – there is a vast mobilizing optimism.
If you take a purely technical questions, in order to deliver the crew to the moon and back, you need a super-heavy carrier. Make it today for a year or two is unreal! Then to create a “Saturn-5” took 10 years! And do not think that today, in the absence of a race between the powers will take less. On the contrary! The more that the acceptable level of risk when you can save time on the tests dropped significantly.
what we in 2022? The program, developed in our Institute for 2021 planned unmanned expedition “Luna-25” with the lander. Although the date might move. In 2024 the planned project “Luna-26”. It is the creation of a space complex “Luna-Resource-1” (OA) with an orbital spacecraft to conduct remote sensing studies of the lunar surface from lunar orbit. And “Luna-27” with the landing apparatus. In General, we can say with confidence that our unmanned lunar program will be implemented. With some degree of uncertainty can talk about the timing of its implementation.
as for manned flights, it is a more serious problem.
Edward Valentine, the lead designer of one of the defense enterprises:
the Future, and it is clear for reusable space vehicles and carriers. The economy is such that the first stage is the most expensive because of the engines. Therefore, it is, of course, have to be returned, it is necessary to save.
And do not think that the loss of the project “Energy-Buran” lost all the groundwork for reusable manned and unmanned space exploration. There were many projects, and not very successful, but they are all because of underfunding, and what to conceal, the lack of will of the leadership, brought to completion was not.
for Example, our two-stage heavy launch vehicle “Rossiyanka”, which was done by MIAS them. Makeyev. The return of the first stage can be used up to 25 times. And the comeback stage is on a ballistic trajectory by re-enabling the standard engines fitted on a platform the size of 50×50 m, remote from the launch at 3-5 km, and in 2011 she was presented at the competition of the Russian space Agency to develop a Reusable space-rocket system of the first stage (mrca-1). However, the results of this contest an order to develop the mrca got GKNPTs im. Khrunichev with the project “Baikal-Angara”. Nine years had passed away – or “sheds” or “the Russians”.
Now, of course, necessary modernito intensify it. To put the new engines, upgraded. To update the control system as lagging behind in accuracy landing. But it solved the problem. And decide if there is a will years five or six.
But in parallel we need to do a mini-Shuttle, or a light space plane. He has his own niche. Such projects also were there. But not completed as well.
the Space program is probably the most expensive toy… how much it really cost two superpowers of speechonly in the 60-90-ies of the last century, is not exactly one answer. How very carefully the experts say, “we are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars.” Add or Soviet rubles, as in those days the purchasing power of both currencies were about equal. But it’s in those years. It is generally believed that the Soviet program was worth about five times less than the us.
the experts are guided, for example, the numbers of lunar programs. American, with the landing of the astronauts, it was worth 26 billion dollars. A Soviet, unmanned, is much more modest. The cost of one only a spacesuit for landing on the satellite surpasses ten million dollars. Accordingly, the lunar soil brought to Earth by both countries, for us it was cheaper. As you say, the Soviets – so inefficient.
the Most expensive object in the history of space – the international space station, or ISS. The total cost of this facility, which is now, say, drill holes, exceeded $ 150 billion. Hundreds of them had to drive from the United States. Annually Washington is spending 3-4 billion dollars for the maintenance of the 6.5 -7. In principle, not very big money for something that Russia is the only recessed, newly renovated “WORLD”. Incidentally, he cost 12 billion dollars. From 1986 to 2001. The figures are very approximate, of course.
Almost 114 billion dollars and 16 billion Soviet rubles worth of humanity program reusable space flight. First, as you know, was called the Space Shuttle, the second, which is in rubles, – “Energy-Buran”. Who started to spend the first historians of the cosmos is still debated. It is known that the Shuttle from Congress first asked for 5 billion, then the estimate has tripled. How much is requested on the “Buran” from the Central Committee of the Communist party, remains a mystery. As a result, the cost of one flight instead of the planned 15 million dollars resulted in the American taxpayer 500 million of those dollars. And the Buran flew only once unmanned.
In principle, most experts agree that while the reusable space transportation system are not justified. For them it is banal there is so much work to recapture the invested funds.
After the closure of the project Space Shuttle in 2011 and manned flights to the ISS are only the Soviet-Russian “Soyuz”. According to media reports, now starting for the American call�� worth around $ 80 million. What is the cost of the flight is a commercial secret. Although Capitol hill is constantly talking about the dependence on Russian media, but to allocate to a new program of manned space flight of the order of 100 billion dollars just for the first 5-7 years of work do not want. In principle, they rightly believe that it is cheaper to pay us. And there’s Elon Musk bring to mind your reusable system. Already, although with major grants from NASA, it runs equal in value “to the Unions”.
But how much will cost products Mask, hard to say. It could happen as with a new telescope, “James Webb”. At the beginning of work in 1997, it was planned that it will cost a ridiculous $ 500 million and will fly to the Lagrange point in 2007. Today he is still on mother Earth, is already nearly 11 billion and plans to fly only in the spring of 2021.
Modern American lunar program, NASA is estimated at 100-150 billion dollars. Russian – billion 30, but rubles. But the numbers, as we have learned, full of guile.
Immediately after the third course of the faculty of foreign languages found in July 1969 temporary work in “Intourist”. I drove and drove through the capital only individual, now said to be VIP, tourists. In the twentieth of July, worked with the couple from new York. They talked among themselves only about the landing of compatriots on the moon, and asked me to buy them the most important newspaper of the Soviet Union with a message about the event. In many stalls “Truth” has already sold out, and in one we were lucky. I was immediately asked to give a detailed translation of on the moon feat. The task was surprisei: about the landing – the lines 20 max. The Americans did not understand, asked to see the article and was amazed that this tiny sliver of a tiny font? Went back to the kiosk, bought the rest of the papers. I was surprised: why? And I was told that the house will give friends, let them know, as in Russia appreciated the landing of Armstrong.
And about the famous Neil Armstrong. In Moscow in the beginning of March 1995 at the reception on the occasion of the international tournament of jumpers in water “the Spring swallows” came to the table with his friend coach Anatoliy Naryshkinym and two coaches from America. Introduced to each other, and suddenly I remembered what has been called a surname of the cosmonaut. After all, it’s a diver-canadian, who in 1976 at the Olympics in Montreal I knew a completely different name. He persuaded our young jumper Sergey Nemcinova secretly to go with him out of the Olympic village and stay abroad.
Let Nemcinova under the age of majority, managed to return, the scandal has turned out loud. Declared guilty of a poor coach roofing Larushkina: for the weakening of ideological work announced strict party reprimand, demoted, and ten years is not the issue��if abroad. Me, a former translator in Montreal, his anger surpassed, although they could close up such…
And here we are all at one table. The caller, Armstrong replied to me a direct question directly: Yes, Nemcinova have taken it. And this spot lay on it the rest of my life, married, took the name of the American wife – cousin of the astronaut. Now, if it really happened, then apologizes for the act Mr Larushkina me, too, he promneftegaz.
Roofing forgiven. And I’m not. Although we met the day of Forgiveness Sunday.