Experts still disagree regarding the beginning of the second wave.
After new cases of infection with coronavirus in countries where the incidence went down, many are talking about the beginning of the second wave. But not in all cases, experts are willing to call the growth of cases in the second wave. According to many of them, the world is still not got out of first, and separate, and even the strong, the outbreak will continue for another something time.
to talk about the beginning of the second wave, it is necessary to complete first, that is a steady decline in cases of infection down to the lowest level, and then a new dramatic increase in morbidity. And if the downturn is more or less clear, about what is considered new on a positive note, if already started the second wave, and whether it in General, experts have not yet come to a consensus.
For example, in North Rhine—Westphalia, more than 1300 workers in meat processing plants in gütersloh were identified coronavirus. The result of government land quarantines all 7 thousand employees along with their family members. In addition, several smaller outbreaks were identified in nursing homes, hospitals, refugee centres in different parts of the country.
However, according to the Berlin Institute named Robert Koch, who study infectious diseases in the last days it due these separate outbreaks dramatically increased the index of reproduction of coronavirus. So, if on Friday it was 1.06 (this means that 100 infected can infect another 106 people), then on Saturday he rose to 1.79, and on Sunday already to 2.88. According to experts, for the gradual taking of the disease under the control of the index should not exceed 1.
In the confirmation centre gives the following figures: in the period from 15 to 21 may, the average number of new infections per day was 16, and last week — 200. On Saturday the diagnosis was 294 people. The center’s specialists are sure that we are talking about the second wave, although it also formed multiple outbreaks in different parts of the country, particularly in nursing homes and in hospitals. According to their forecasts, at the current rate in the country in a month will be 1000 new cases per day.
However, according to The Jerusalem Post, Chairman of the Israeli Association of doctors of public health Professor of epidemiology Hagai Levin believes that the report of the center “professional” and “not serious” though, because the number of its employees are not epidemiologists or experts in the field of health. He also noted that the report is not based on the facts, pointed to a number of figures, is significantly at odds with those of the Ministry of common��protection of the country, and urged not to panic.
meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not wait until the experts come to a consensus, and announced that the government intends to “dramatically tighten” the restrictive measures against the spread of the disease.
So, can introduce new penalties for violating quarantine more strictly control its compliance and Israel’s security services would have the right to conduct digital tracking of sick citizens, which at the beginning of the pandemic was subjected to public criticism and was cancelled.
According to the head of the Centers for control and prevention of diseases, the first wave ended in April, then the incidence dropped significantly, and if you have a single outbreaks there were days when I did not reveal any new cases of the disease.
But from the end of may at the present time there is not a sharp but steady increase in the number of diseases per day sometimes reaches 48-69. In this regard, in some cities the newly introduced bans on a mass congestion of people.
the Municipality of Seoul has warned that it is ready again to oblige people to abide by social distance if the number of cases in the capital will exceed 30 over three consecutive days.
However, according to Iranian officials, the reason for the current growth in the real increase in the number of cases, and that began to do more tests and to identify the coronavirus those who are sick with mild symptoms or asymptomatic.
a Similar view is shared by the President of the United States Donald trump, who believes that the ongoing increase of cases in the country are just tests.
“If so many test, then, of course, would be identified more cases, said Mr. trump, speaking to voters in Oklahoma.— I said to them: “Let’s slow down with these tests”. And then all test and test”.
“the Virus is spreading across the U.S. and affects different places with varying intensity at different times”, — said the Agency AP, the General Director of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Richard Besser, who in 2009 year, the influenza pandemic was led by the American Centers for control and disease prevention.
According to the opinion of another expert on the influenza Arnold Monto of the University of Michigan, the current situation in the US could be called “the continuing spread of the virus with separate exacerbations”. And in General, American experts note that the concept of the second wave is subjective, everyone interprets it differently. And especially given the novelty COVID-19 and a lack of knowledge, it is unlikely until it is safe to predict that the second wave, for example, in late summer, autumn or next winter.
But many experts in the world agree that to relax in anyom is not actually the case. Especially in the history of the world there is a sad experience, when the second wave is much stronger than the first, as it was with the pandemic of “Spanish flu” in 1918-1919. There’s a third wave.
Alena Miklashevskaya
