A mass Exodus from the cities, the pandemic caused by a coronavirus, in the long run can continue. The epidemic has changed the needs of people in housing, however, the anti-crisis measures do not account for this, experts say, the Russian presidential Academy of national economy and public administration (Ranepa).
They called a coronavirus disease of large cities and noted the global regularity when the nidus is formed there, and then spreads to peripheral areas with lower level of development.
The outflow of people from Metropolitan areas observed in the spring of 2020 in Russia, forces us to rethink the views on agglomeration processes in public policy, experts noted.
We are talking about the strategy of spatial development of the country for the period up to 2025. Approved in February 2019, the document intended to stimulate advanced development of promising centers of economic growth. By design, this should bring additional resources for the development of small and medium-sized towns and villages, RBC.
The experts of the Russian Academy of national economy pointed out that the construction of housing in the region is uneven: most of the houses erected in the 15 largest urban agglomerations, and in small and medium cities, new construction is practically not carried out because of the decrease of population and low income residents.
Economic support policy, adopted against the background of a pandemic, may lead to an increase in imbalances in the spatial development of the country, warned experts. So, the program of preferential mortgage at 6.5% per annum for the purchase of new housing will be effective there, where incomes are sufficiently high and where there is a developed market share building.
It is extremely important that the adopted economic measures aimed at stimulating high-rise building and do not take into account the diversity of the housing needs of the Russians, said the study authors. They referred to the data of the all-Russia centre of studying of public opinion (VTSIOM). Conducted prior to the pandemic, the survey showed that 66% of citizens would like to live in private homes. Apartment brick house chose 17% of the panel and monolithic is only 7% and 3% respectively.
After mode isolation, the desire to live in their own house established in the people even more, experts say Ranepa. This, in their opinion, influenced the experience of remote work that people were able to “taste” due to the epidemic. This type of employment allows you to work from the suburbs, small towns and villages, keeping the income characteristic of large cities.
At the same time in the normal apartments due to the small area it is impossible to create extra areas for sports or for udalenku, and from the survey Center page��strategic developments, it follows that 68% of companies intend to leave in a remote part of the staff and after the end of the epidemic.
In addition, the experts pointed out, the Russians seek to reduce costs in terms of the expected protracted financial crisis, and the perception of big cities as areas of increased risk of infection and related fears persists and grows stronger.
In confirmation of this forecast, the experts cited statistics. So, according to the service Avito, during the regime of isolation significantly increased the demand for rental and purchase of villas and country houses. In April, the interest in long-term rent of villas and townhouses increased by 213,3% and of 171.3%, respectively, compared to the same period of 2019. In addition, the demand for villas increased by 93.4 per cent, and houses of 21.7%.
In addition, at the end of the month the demand for land for individual housing construction (individual housing construction) grew by 12.3%.
As for Moscow, which has become the epicenter of the disease in Russia, there has been a massive outflow of labour migrants and local residents. According to mobile operator MTS, from 25 March to 8 April, more than 15% of the capital subscribers decided to wait out the period of isolation outside the city. It turned out that 79% of them went to the suburbs, and 21% and all other regions of the country.
Considering all these factors, experts Ranepa proposed to revise the strategy of territorial development of the country. In their view, emphasis should be placed on the support of individual housing construction and additional funding for the construction of municipal roads, kindergartens, schools and hospitals. In addition, the researchers found it necessary to distribute free transfer of land plots on the model of “far Eastern acres” for all regions of the country where there is a negative dynamics of the population.
In addition, the experts called for restriction of buildings under construction in height and spreading adapted to local conditions of the program of renovation to the entire territory of the country.
Earlier NEWS.ru wrote that one-bedroom apartments in new buildings fell victim to the financial crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, and the subsequent measures of economic support. The fact that the mortgage subsidies from the state and a rate of 6.5% per annum allowed potential buyers to think about a larger housing, which they could not afford before. At the same time, Russians with low incomes have shifted to Studio apartments.