When experts expect a rise in oil prices and strengthening currency.
this week gave hope to the participants in the oil market. Raw material prices rose above $30 per barrel for the first time since mid-April. At certain moments, Brent futures traded above $32. Markets expect a gradual recovery of the global economy, which could stimulate demand for hydrocarbons. Am I still positive on the oil market in the near future?
Investment strategist of the company “Arikapital” Sergey Suverov considers that the further growth of oil prices is possible, but closer to the fall: “there Are opposite factors. On the one hand, gradually softened the quarantine measures began to operate the OPEC deal+ on production cuts. However, the store remains crowded, and demand is recovering very slowly. Therefore, something real big increase in prices is possible only in the third quarter, when the Ministry of energy and international experts predict a slight deficiency in the oil market. I think as long as the price of oil will dance a cancan, they will fluctuate near $30 per barrel of Brent. But there is hope for growth to $40 in the second half of the year.”
And that this background will happen with the ruble? Analyst of InstaForex companies group Alexander Davydov considers that a significant strengthening of the Russian currency in the next two months should not wait: “We currently observe a certain stability of the ruble. Dollar for quite a long time is in the corridor from 73 to 74 RUB In General, pace of economic activity remains the same — it is extremely low. This is due primarily to the introduction of restrictive measures due coronavirus”.
on Friday during the weekly online conference head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that in June the regulator may lower its key rate, and 100 basis points, to 4.5%. This step is able to provide short-term support to the ruble, but its more lasting effect may be the reverse, said General Director of investment company “Ivolga Capital” Andrey Khokhrin: “the rate Reduction is, on the one hand, the preservation of cash liquidity. On the other hand, is a measure of the short-term. The problem is that if you have inflation is at odds with a bet, the bet in a short time turns into a decorative tool. Now, during may and June, the decision to soft monetary policy will support the economy and financial markets and will not allow them to go into a state of shock. But on the ruble sooner or later it will begin to impact inflation, which is not regulated and not targetarea”.
on Friday the dollar in the second half of trading, after online conference chapters�� Of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, was below $ 73,5 RUB.
Andrey Zagorsky.
