the Future is not predetermined, but not spontaneously, as it is a continuation of the present, proves the German futurologist Bernd Flessner. According to him, the future “is split into several scenarios that together describe a certain space of possibilities”. In its forecast published in Focus magazine (Germany), the researcher presented the scenario of post-crisis tomorrow, which seems to him most probable.
so 2021: winners and losers
the Baseline scenario, which is between the worst and the best, suggests that after the second infectious wave of physicians will finally get an efficient vaccine against coronavirus. Previous versions will fail.
after Surviving several satdanov, total stops, the global economy will gradually revive. Among the winners from the crisis are companies that have managed to advance in the digitalization and automation. For example, enterprises capable of using 3D printers to quickly change the range of its products.
the Losers – the companies that are unable to find a way to adapt their products or services to new conditions. It is primarily a tourist and gastronomic industry. Not rosy the prospects for the arts. Many museums and theaters will be forced to close.
will Change the society, and there will be contradictory trends. On the one hand will increase the fragmentation, individualization. But at the local level there will be new enterprises and the community. People here, on the contrary, will be close.
After the end of the quarantine measures will decrease the consumption of media content. People will begin to travel, but mostly in the country, which will be new to us.
2025: the world is once again teaming up
All the survivors, that is, the vast majority of the world’s population resistant to the coronavirus or vaccinated. “Coronaries” finally overcome, but is deeply ingrained in mass consciousness.
Discussions about the failings and errors made in the course of the pandemic, becoming noticeably less violent. To the forefront other topics. In particular, climate change. Droughts, floods, crop failures, forest fires – an integral part of everyday life of mankind.
Globalization is returned to the agenda, while protectionism is losing supporters. The world is becoming more cohesive. Specially convened for this conference on transparency makes the decision to accelerate the transfer from the national to the international level data related to the health of the population. Among the signatories of the agreement – China.
2030: a new pandemic
“Coronaries” almost forgotten, mankind with increasing energy fights climate change.
During the next international climate conference, the participants become aware of the appearance of new, previously unknown virus, the risk of which is comparable with the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Comes the realization that history could repeat itself, that what it was 10 years ago, not last, and the first pandemic of the XXI century.
The new pandemic of the national health system is ready is a bit better than the previous one. Humanity once again knows very little about the virus, but still enough to not repeat the same mistakes. At least lack this knowledge in order to produce a sufficient number of protective masks and costumes: they are now produced using 3D printers and decentralized.
unfortunately, this flow futurist consciousness of Herr Flessner ends. What is clear is that the end of the world it does not involve in the case of a new pandemic.
of course, you Can find all this is pure fantasy. But as you know, “the fairy tale lie, Yes in it a hint”. A hint in this tale is more than enough. In General, wait and see. To be continued.
