but Now the volume of passenger traffic tends to zero. Will recover if they are after the lifting of restrictions?
Pavel Chistyakov: a Typical example of China shows us. As of mid-March, when opened Wuhan, from where started the spread of the epidemic, it took only two weeks, the demand for rail transportation in the country has recovered half, and at the aircraft by a third.
a Many say that the world after a pandemic will never be the same, and drive people will be less. What are we waiting for?
Pavel Chistyakov: the Whole history of mankind shows a steady increase in mobility of the population, whatever happens. After epidemics, wars have been short-term drawdowns, but in the end the mobility was restored and grew. The question is, how soon it will happen in our time.
Interurban and international transport is linked to the growth of incomes of the population and the change in the supply of transport services. Prior to a pandemic mobility in Russia was growing by 2-3% per year, faster than the economy. For 2020 in cautiously-optimistic forecast of the mobility will be reduced by about 15-20% if the lifting of restrictions on move will happen in early summer. In 2021 will rebound by about 10%. In the end, two years will decline 5%. And then in 4-5 years the level of mobility will be restored. But for this to be so, the state should provide passenger transport financial support for the repair of mobility will be longer, and this has a negative impact on economic growth. In the long-distance transportation of substantial shifts between modes of transport will not happen, especially where competition between modes of transport, for example, between the European part of Russia and the Far East aviation is no alternative form of transport. As a result, the shifts between modes of transport are within 10%.
of which way?
Pavel Chistyakov: We expect that passengers on the railway will be back faster and more readily. The train gives the impression of epidemiologically more secure vehicle. Passengers sit more freely, far away from each other, and at the station they have to spend less time than at the airport. This assumption is supported by Chinese statistics release from quarantine.
In the end, rail transport will be in a better position especially ��de it competes with aircraft, that is, directions to thousands of kilometres – as, for example, Moscow – Voronezh, Moscow – Kazan, Moscow – Saint-Petersburg, Rostov – Krasnodar. For the railroad switches about 10% of passengers, according to our estimates, but it is necessary to change approaches to the marketing of railway transport, flexible management of the route network and fares in the period of release from quarantine. It’s all countable things.
a Unless the aircraft system of disinfection, air purification is not better than the trains?
Pavel Chistyakov: Salons in trains are also handled, even in trains. In the salon much less interaction between the passengers is more intensive, it does not matter how frequently updated air, but what are the chances of direct contact. But most of all in this matter plays the role of subjective perception.
a And on the bus people will go?
Pavel Chistyakov: long-distance trucking will come to life pretty quickly. To a considerable extent the transportation takes place within regions and restrictions on regional and intermunicipal travel especially, is much softer.
a Crisis by truckers will hit the least?
Pavel Chistyakov In intercity transport – Yes, we do still no large-scale Federal carriers, which carried the passengers across the country. Often this UI, which have one bus, one bus. A large share of pseudosabina transport working "grey". The debt burden is substantially less than the aircraft and aviators as other conventionally fixed costs. But the situation is completely different in urban transport. Then drop in the flow and revenues – 80% of the national average, while many carriers are obliged to carry out work in accordance with the contracts. Plus, fixed costs are much higher. This sector requires the direct support of not less than 6 billion rubles in the summer, according to our estimates. It is necessary at least in order for carriers to pay drivers bought fuel, put in order the vehicle. Otherwise, in many cities, carriers can simply not go to the route at some point, and people are not physically able to get to work. Urban transport and aviation – the two most affected by the pandemic sector in transport.
a what will happen to the aircraft? Carriers now carry a huge loss, they will try to compensate for this price increase?
Pavel Chistyakov: If you do not take measures, the airlines will seek to raise prices. The losses are huge, they need to compensate. It is hoped to reduce the cost of jet fuel, but it can hardly be. Even if the oil consistently will cost $ 20 per barrel, anyway fuel will be sold at the same price as before. Though it is a controlled quantity, which can be reduced if you carefully follow the competition fuel companies at specific airports. It is possible to work out measures to strengthen the regulation of airport charges, which at many airports has grown much faster than inflation (in the unregulated part). A good measure would be to provide the aviation industry of deferred loan and lease payments, but at the same time to negotiate with the airport operators that they have now discounted airport charges.
Also a certain reduction in the cost of transportation can be achieved through the introduction of hub-and-spoke model, in which major regional hubs receive additional benefits, including direct subsidies. This will allow at the time of exit from the crisis is to adjust the structure of the aircraft fleet in favor of larger aircraft with lower costs seat-mile. For the period of market recovery all air travel must be perceived as a social problem and support them, in fact, on the model of the state order. But it is important to preserve the remnants of competition and very carefully to support the private carriers.
a After the close of the international flights and reducing domestic transportation, airlines lost income. Now some of the carriers are trying to accomplish cargo transportation. This will help to survive?
Pavel Chistyakov: Passenger traffic on international routes reset to zero, but on the inside – fell by 80% or more. Since all airlines have aircraft on lease, to pay anyway. Because any source of revenue is extremely important.
But not all aircraft can carry. In the first place is the goods with high added value that carry cars or trains in containers. In addition, the network of airports in the country are rare. So freight is the minimum version of salvation. In the end, airlines will be able not more than 10% of passenger revenue to offset the expense of transportation.
a will fill the Rest of the state?
Pavel Chistyakov: it is Planned to provide state support in the amount of 23 billion rubles airlines. According to our estimates, is about one-third of what is needed.
For comparison: in the USA support the industry – $32 billion (2.2 trillion roubles). The US Federal budget is 17 times more than in Russia, and the airline market is 9 times. In the calculation in proportion to the size of the budget subsidies to the aviation industry of the Russian Federation shall be not less than 130 billion rubles. And if per 1 passenger-km, even more. However much we embrace digital communication, delayed hundreds of thousands of trips that are waiting in the wings. Each trip brings direct and indirect economic effects for the state.
If the amount of state support will not be much increased, most likely, we expect the bankruptcy of the airlinecomp, the monopolization of the market, rising prices and reduced transport mobility, particularly in geostrategic areas where other modes of transport to get.
a because of the crisis will have to cut funding of the national project "Safe and quality roads" and the Comprehensive plan?
Pavel Chistyakov: the Most short-sighted thing to do in a crisis is to cut the program of development of transport infrastructure. It is written in any textbook on Economics. In our opinion, can not cut anything, and our budget can afford it. Russia has a high macroeconomic stability, low public debt and certain reserves. So, if you have planned to build a toll road from Moscow to Kazan, you need to do to ensure investors and residents and to provide the most positive economic effects, based on which the state has agreed to these projects. Due to the small growth (by 4-5 percentage points) government debt, Russia can and must maintain all the infrastructure programs that have been planned. They have a large planning horizon and will serve for decades. If the pandemic these projects will cancel the long-term damage and loss of added value will cover the budget costs.
But if all the same something will have to cut in the first place it should be projects that are focused on rapid growth of export of raw materials. Everything is focused on the transportation of all goods with high added value need to keep. Can’t be cut all that is connected with container transportation, program development highways. But most importantly, the passengers. Funds from the construction of infrastructure of airfields could be reallocated for grants, so that more people flying. In addition, the need to significantly expand funding for urban passenger transport. It is very important to exit the crisis. Transport still carries the value added, but in the twenty-first century, a significant part of it goes in the minds of passengers.
a How to change urban transport?
Pavel Chistyakov: City will face a very serious challenge, since urban transport is one of the key places of infection. There are different predictions, someone said that all disperse from cities to the countryside. Others believe that the opposite will prevail the concept of the 15-minute city, so that moving to live closer to work. In fact, all processes in settlement is very inertial, but some trends will intensify. For example, practice "1 day per week of work outside the office", but a total transition to remote work is not going to happen. Communication often breaks many things on Zoom will not discuss, lacking nonverbal communication, without the officebut it is much harder to separate work from life. In 2019 in Moscow, about 20% of workers were not tied to a rigid schedule in new York is about 35%. This is our limit for the next decade.
People back to public transport, but the good news is that the peak load will slowly be eroded. In cities like Moscow, Tokyo, European cities designated for personal vehicles is more than just will not. So we have to develop public transport, but subject to managing the risk of new epidemics. The passengers were better protected you will need, for example to equip the transport installations of air purification. You will also need to gradually reduce the crowd in public transport. And this is a significant investment in increasing its capacity.
