Every week there is a set of predictions for pandemic coronavirus. Not all of them come true, and most not even based on a fairly authoritative sources. As a result, hundreds of publications are regularly produced another opinion that it will end in may, June, July or August. On what are based these predictions and whether they do believe — in the material of RTVI.
In late April, scientists from Singapore University of technology and design has once again updated its forecasts for the duration of the epidemic in different countries of the world. According to their calculations, the improvement of the situation, particularly in Russia, is expected by 23 may. Fully the epidemic in the country will only be completed by 19 August.
the scientists Also predicted the timing of the completion of the epidemic in other countries so the US can get rid of the virus on 9 September, Italy — 31 Aug, UK — August 22, Germany — 6 Aug, France on 9 August. Pandemic in the world, according to scientists, may not end before 1 December.
the Medical Advisor to the Chinese government Zhong Nanshan advised the authorities of all countries to follow the who recommendations and try to contain the spread of coronavirus. In his opinion, in this case, the epidemic will be stopped by June, but only if the world community to act together. Joon came, he said, that in the warmer months coronaviruses are less active.
But attempts to predict the epidemic are not only scientists, but simply a public figure. For example, press-Secretary Russian President Dmitry Peskov in an interview with RTVI expressed hope that the country has plateaus. Earlier he said he expected to reach plateau by mid-may, and “in the first month of summer, probably will be easier”. His point of view he backed up by the fact that in Italy and Spain the most difficult period of the epidemic lasted about six weeks.
About the unreliability of predictions regarding the epidemiological situation can be judged, for example, at the request of the American President Donald trump. In February, he, speaking to his supporters, suggested that the coronavirus “miraculously disappear” by April, when it’s warmer.
However, a finger to the sky and fall experts: for example, in mid-March, Thomas McAndrew from the University of Massachusetts asked 18 colleagues across America about how, in their opinion, will develop the disease.
speaking earlier forecasts in late January, when the peak of the epidemic was in China, Dr. Zhong Nanshan expected peak of the infection within ten days. A few days later he revised his suggestion, and extended the maximum period to two weeks. And in the middle of m��of es Zhong Nanshan said that the peak should be expected at the end of February, followed by a plateau and decline in the number of infected. The end of the pandemic in China, according to the physician, would have at the end of April.
Despite the fact that the first outbreak in Wuhan failed to stop and the number of new cases of coronavirus in China for a long time did not increase, in mid-April, Heilongjiang province (bordering Russia province with its centre in Harbin) has become a leader among Chinese provinces in the number of patients with COVID-19. Now new infections in the region is not fixed, but this case shows how rapidly can change the situation.
There are examples of how the forecasts as new information becomes less gloomy: for example, at the Washington Institute health assessment (IHME), scientists have developed a model that can predict the development of a pandemic based on real data. On 7 April, she predicted more than 80 thousand deaths in the United States from coronavirus infection in August, and two days later lowered that number to 60 thousand. According to the April 30, from COVID-19 in the country has died more than 60 thousand patients.
the forecasts Themselves are different — some are doing a little familiar with the situation, people, and other hypotheses put forward real experts. Naturally, the first often serves his position categorically, while the second is constantly stipulate that it is not accurate, but only with a certain probability.
the Development of a pandemic depends on too many factors to create a perfect algorithm with the current technology it is impossible. The lack of data for a complete analysis, and the unpredictability of human behavior.
But this does not mean that all predictions are useless — even when inaccurate, they can give you some idea of what lies ahead. Of course, the greatest confidence should be given to the forecasts that was developed by the scientists based on real data and conjecture (even scientific) should be treated with skepticism.
Yegor Tishin
