will Only be built by the production stops in March and April, around 1.6 million cars less. “It is still too early to say specifically what the effect will be the Corona of a pandemic on the auto industry. But I’m afraid we will see only a fraction of the dislocations. Mainly because in the medium term will also change the behavior of the consumers,” says Andreas Radics, managing Partner at Berylls Strategy Advisors. “Even if the production runs in the world again – we don’t know how quickly the purchase of normalized behavior.”
in addition, large corporations such as VW or Fiat/Chrysler will need to suspend their production for longer than planned. The reasons are still the same: It comes to the health of employees; it is also urgently needed components are missing but increasingly, because of the supplier to suspend its production or the logistics chain (ship, rail, truck) are interrupted.
Positive signs from China
“The good news is that in China, the production is almost everywhere again and the customers buy from the dealers in cars,” admits Andreas Radics. “Individual brands report that they are already back at 70 or 80 percent of the expected volume. Come in China is none other Covid-19-wave, this is a very positive Signal of such an important market.”
For China, data specialist IHS, Markit expects that this year, 22.4 million vehicles are produced; so 2.3 million, or ten percent less than in 2019. In Europe, it should be 15.6 million vehicles, i.e., 13.6 per cent less. Despite a Two-billion rescue program for the U.S. economy, the recession seems to be also sealed. IHS predicts for 2020 a paragraph from 14,46-million cars, a decline of at least 2.4 million vehicles, or 15.3 percent.
No lost car of the year
Nevertheless, Beryl-Analyst Andreas Radics does not see the car in the year 2020, with an expected sales decline of slightly more than ten percent as a lost year. “Provided always, that the crisis is weakening within the next three months in Europe and the United States, and the Virus remains in China under control.”
Fixed: Only companies who move quickly to develop a revised strategy for production, commercial and model portfolio, and so more flexibly to the crisis, could get away with manageable injuries. Some of the smaller suppliers are likely to be on the edge of your subsistence pushed – and also some car manufacturers could falter.