Bouffier resigns – CDU candidate Rhein follows? The Prime Minister election in Hesse is not that easy. Black-Green has a majority, the Greens could speculate on new elections. The vote on Tuesday also had a major impact on Olaf Scholz’s cabinet. Four scenarios at a glance.
Germany’s longest-serving Prime Minister Volker Bouffier (CDU) could experience a spectacular political thriller on the day of his departure. The Hessian head of state wants to vacate his post after twelve years at the top. He is to be succeeded by his party friend Boris Rhein. But the situation in the Hessian state parliament is complicated.
Because the black-green coalition in Wiesbaden has a majority of votes. Rhein therefore needs the full backing of the Greens. If even one deputy from the coalition votes against him, the election fails.
But the Greens could play at risk and bring about early elections. Top man Tarek Al-Wazir would be able to stand for election this summer if the state parliament were dissolved.
CDU politician Rhein could meet the same fate as Heide Simonis in Schleswig-Holstein in 2005. At that time, the prime minister was voted out with one vote. The “Heide murderer” is still unknown today.
If Rhein were to lose the coalition majority, the current government under Bouffier would remain in office. The long-time sovereign could get an unwanted term extension.
If the dissolution of the state parliament and a new election also fail, in which the AfD and FDP have little interest due to poor approval ratings, Bouffier could even remain at the top of the government until the end of the legislative period in autumn 2023.
It could also be fatal for the SPD if Rhein is not elected on Tuesday. The comrades are planning to lead the government again after twelve years of black power. But the probable candidate Nancy Faeser is currently busy as Federal Minister of the Interior in Olaf Scholz’s cabinet.
Faeser denied rumors that she was running as a top candidate in Hesse, although always slightly. But a few weeks ago, Christine Lambrecht (SPD), also from Hesse, revealed that Faeser would be the top candidate in the state election campaign in 2023.
Defense Minister Lambrecht, who is under severe criticism, could save herself by swapping posts in the Ministry of the Interior and Scholz could fill the important department again. Even after the ministerial posts were allocated in 2021, people were puzzled as to why two comrades from Hesse were given top positions. Scholz could have speculated on Faeser’s departure in 2023 from the outset.
One scenario is missing: Boris Rhein receives the necessary majority and is elected as the new prime minister. That would also give the federal CDU an image boost. With Daniel Günther in Schleswig-Holstein, Hendrik Wüst in North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhein in Hesse, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has secured power in three federal states, which he can use as votes in the Bundesrat.
All three men stand for a younger CDU and are openly flirting with the Greens. Possibly also a concept for the federal government when the Union is looking for a new government constellation after the traffic light.
From a young age, Boris Rhein was considered a high-flyer and a beacon of hope for the Hessian CDU. Now the 50-year-old is to become the new prime minister.
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