A few weeks ago, Ukraine inflicted a heavy blow by recapturing Kherson. Since then there have been significantly fewer front shifts.
While Russian troops are preparing for the winter, building new defenses and moving their troops mainly to the Donbass, Ukraine has a new target in mind: Crimea. And the plan to reclaim the peninsula illegally annexed in 2014 begins with landing on a small promontory in the Black Sea.
It is about the so-called Spit of Kinburn. It is a promontory in the Black Sea. On November 21, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Ukrainian official confirmed that special forces were deployed to Kinburn.
From the peninsula, Russia had repeatedly shelled Ukrainian territory with artillery. If Ukraine were able to drive out the Russians there, they could significantly ease the pressure of the attacks — and gain more control over the Black Sea, for example. But according to the analysis of some military experts, Ukraine’s goal is different: the attacks on Kinburn are part of a grand plan to recapture Crimea.
Military expert Mike Martin, for example, believes that Ukraine’s main aim in landing on Kinburn is to force Russian troops from the surrounding area there and thus weaken the defenses of other areas.
Martin’s prognosis: Russian troops are to be withdrawn from the Zaporizhia area and moved to Kinburn for defense. Then Ukraine could dare to break through at Zaporizhia and attack Crimea from there – Ukraine’s actual goal in this area, according to the military expert. Russia illegally annexed the peninsula in 2014. Ukraine makes returning the peninsula a condition of negotiations with Russia. So the attacks on Kinburn would only be a feint to achieve the actual goal.
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