Declined the exchange rate, primarily against the background of oil prices, which rebounded in anticipation of OPEC deal+. Now there is still no full understanding of the amount of reduced production in the countries involved in the transaction, and what strategy will be to stick to mining companies in the United States, so investors will continue to assess the prospects of the oil market, says the head of analytical Department of Bank “St.-Petersburg” Andrey Kadulin.
the Kremlin urged not to “freeze” the economy
the Growth of oil prices on the background of the agreement will allow the Russian currency to gain a foothold below 75 rubles per dollar, but the risks of deterioration in investor sentiment remain high, the analyst said. Still difficult to assess how long the restrictive measures will be in effect in the United States and will be completed when the peak incidence of coronavirus, the deterioration of a news background risky assets will be under pressure again. In this case, the ruble will return to 78 to 80 rubles to the dollar, but weakening him to run the operations of the Bank of Russia, which, though reduced the amount of the sold currency continues to smooth out volatility in the foreign exchange market, says Kazulin.
an Important factor for the dynamics of the markets in the second half of April will be the results of reporting companies in the U.S. for the first quarter, said head of strategic analysis and modeling of the SMP-Bank Vladimir Fedotov. But the epidemiological situation remains extremely tense, and it is unlikely that in the near future the situation can improve, respectively, the markets will be under pressure. In the second half of April, support for the rouble will render the tax period, adds the analyst.
In General, given these factors, as well as the presence ofI the high liquidity in the markets, the ruble will be in the range of 72-76 rubles per dollar, said Fedotov.