In the Minsk process on the settlement of the conflict in the Donbas now is a mess. Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on 10 July that the Deputy head of the presidential administration of Russia Dmitry Kozak has informed Western colleagues in the Normandy format that Ukraine at the meeting of the TAG in Minsk refused the agreements reached at the recent meeting of the political advisors of the heads of States “Channel four” in Berlin. What will you do then?
Dmitry Kozak gave a detailed interview to TASS, where it says that after March 11, 2020 “constructive attitude of the representatives of Ukraine have radically changed”, and the Minsk agreements are really bad. In turn, Kiev partner Dmitry Kozak in the negotiations, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, on Friday in communicating with the local reporters said that in the “Normandy format” visible progress, the meeting of heads of the countries “Norman four” in Berlin may take place very soon, and soon, literally soon, in the Donbass will be exchange of prisoners – that is all right! Ermak even said that “Ukraine today dominates the negotiations.”
at the same time, the Minister of foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba quickly responded with her at the interview of Dmitry Kozak and accused Russia of trying to “distort the Minsk agreements, to interpret them in such a way that reintegration was held in the Russian conditions” that according to the Ukrainian Minister, is simply doomed to failure. A Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the occupied territories Alexey Reznikov wrote a permanent column in his blog on the American research the website of the Atlantic Council, where he urged the West to help Ukraine to revise the Minsk agreement, as not reflecting the current realities in the Donbas.
All these conflicting statements of top officials and chief negotiators from Russia and Ukraine sounded almost simultaneously, within a couple of days. And the problem is not that contrary to Moscow to Kiev and Vice versa, but Ukrainian officials also sort of categorically do not coincide with each other. However, in Kiev it is no surprise.
What happens with the Minsk agreements? Russia’s demands are unchanged from 2014 – Ukraine should enter into direct negotiations with the breakaway republics of Donbass, to agree new Amnesty laws, elections and the special status of Donbass with representatives of LDNR, to make them a special status in the Constitution, giving them the widest possible autonomy. The political conditions prescribed in the Minsk agreements – amendments to the Constitution, a General Amnesty and local elections should go ahead of security issues in the form of transfer of Ukraine control n��d border and the disarmament of armed formations.
Kiev believes that the Minsk process is a process of peace negotiations Ukraine and Russia with the mediation of the OSCE. And the DNI and LC are fully controlled from Moscow, not recognized by anyone and their officials should not be part of the negotiations and the elections (that is, the heads of cities and districts and local members) must pass under the control of the Ukrainian Central election Commission and Ukrainian flags on the plots only after the disarmament and the transfer of control over the border. After this, any mayors elected in the struggle for budgetary subventions in Kiev will inevitably lose some radical views.
Differences, by and large, in the main, not spoken officials: from the point of view of Russia both the Minsk agreement is the result of military defeats of Ukraine in 2014 and 2015, and these results must be fixed, and Ukraine thus, de facto, should become a neutral Federation. Though not quite Pro-Russian, but without a chance to join ever in NATO.
This script does not work, because such global changes in the politics of a neighboring country may be able to dictate from Kiev, but not from Ilovaysk and debaltseve – they are very close to the border. Ukraine has not recognized his defeat, here’s the catch to all this Minsk process.
what we all last year discussed the prospects for reconciliation in the Donbass, it is the merit of the administration of the Vladimir Zelensky, since Russia’s position has not changed, but the Ukrainian President on his entire country had promised its voters to achieve a quick peace, did a great job to organize a new meeting of heads of state “Channel format” in Paris, made a bunch of symbolic steps to mitigate the aggressive rhetoric, the demobilization of the country, the withdrawal of army units on the separate sectors of the front…. The steps, which even led to the emergence in Ukraine, powerful and aggressive social movement “No surrender!”.
the Policy of Vladimir Zelensky deliberately chosen in such a “tourist” in a campaign all dry products in the absence of the excess liquid is usually poured into one pot and make the kind of “sopocachi” – a concoction that should be a pleasure has it all. So Zelensky brewed such a common “soup” – Andrey Ermak for people that are configured on peace with Russia at any cost, Dmitry Kuleba for militant patriots, and Alexey Reznikov – for all remaining. And they all like at the same time supporters of the President, not subordinate to each other. The very same Vladimir Zelensky – just for all the good! But after a year of tenure Vladimir already knew that the current Kiev the President of Ukraine, which fulfill the requirements of Russia, can not sit still. Recently, the Ukrainian President announced that sold for 14 million hryvnia (about 38 million) your home in the village Ivankovic near Kiev and moved with his family into heavily guarded state house “Koncha-Zaspa”, there is a one-time President lived.
All election company Vladimir Zelensky and a famous TV series “a servant of the people” was built on contempt for the old political elite and the “useless” privileges in the form of Mercedes, the state residences and cottages. Family Zelensky and now threatened the life on the street – in property is still four apartments in Kiev, one in London and the Crimea, home in Italy, five unfinished hotel sites in Georgia Public…move to a state residence will hit the already falling rating Zelensky, but for some reason it was very necessary?
Home ownership is not left, so as not to burn himself, his wife and children were secured, then the President of Ukraine can expect decisive steps. What? And again, all at once! The head of the Ukrainian foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba will continue to make harsh statements. Oleksii Reznikov will undermine the Minsk format, recently introduced in the Ukrainian delegation “of representatives ORDO” from Lugansk and Donetsk people in Kiev, among the negotiators now in addition “to the representation” the head of the relevant committees of the Verkhovna Rada and the Deputy Ministers, the Deputy Prime Minister promises to begin the reintegration of Donbass and spend it slowly in the next 25 years.
the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, in turn, will direct informal bridges with Dmitry Kozak and try to arrange for domestic consumption public signs of the imminent onset of the world – the same exchanges of prisoners, the construction of the new crossing the line crossing in the Luhansk region Happiness and Gold (LC with Ukraine right now is just a period of tacit cooperation) may soon agree on the divorce of troops to some place near Mariupol.
But the rejection of the Minsk agreements Kiev, not worth waiting for despite numerous threatening allusions to a “Plan B” of enclosure from the “occupied” part of the Donbass. Here, everybody understands that the shells fly over any “fences” – just turn your back and forget about the existence of the breakaway republics will not work. Smell again stalled.
