for a month and a half in America do not stop riots, protest marches and rallies that followed the deaths of African-American George Floyd at the hands of white police. But the question is: can I end all these daily demonstrations, marches, riots, looting, violence, demolished monuments, standing on his knees?
interesting Question, of course, but it is safe to answer it now, no one can. The situation is multivariate — we can only speculate. The fundamental ways of development of events are only two: victory for the Democrats or Republicans. But within these variants can be different situations.
let’s Say wins trump. Happens a powerful new outbreak of protests, perhaps violent nature. But soon subside — either by itself, in the absence of long-term goals, or trump, who after the elections will not be of special concern sharp reaction of the Democrats and sympathizers of the movement “black Lives matter”, will call on the riot army.
If the balance of power in Congress remains the same as now (House of representatives — the Democrats, the Senate for the Republicans), and that the most likely outcome, America four years immersed in political stagnation. Politicians from both parties still won’t be able to agree, the legislative process will continue to be in a coma. The bureaucrats in the administration and other agencies will be to sabotage the work of trump, the democratic party will take new unsuccessful attempts to declare the President’s impeachment or something against him to investigate, the press will continue to support Democrats and fight with trump.
you Can expect a reduction in expenditure on police in States and cities with democratic leadership and, consequently, the increase in crime. The economy, however, most likely, will recover and may even reach new heights. The economic situation of the black minority may improve somewhat, as it was during the reign of trump to the pandemic. Relations with Russia will not change. Option for America, from my point of view, a “C grade”.
If the Democrats get both houses of Congress, it is not possible, impeachment and removal from power of the Trump guaranteed. Vice President Pence, who will perform the duties of the President, being bound by Congress’s hands and feet, as well as because of their not really fighting nature, try to negotiate with the Democrats principled price concessions, say, immigration or tax policy. In this situation of the economy there would hardly be any special miracles. The black minority will not win anything (jobs, income growth), but might get new programs��s benefits. This course of events I would have appreciated two points.
But if both houses of Congress fall into the hands of the Republicans, we can expect a new economic boom, which along with others will benefit African Americans, as well as the new reforms. Among them — restriction of the inflow of immigrants, mainly from Latin America, and, of course, the realization of the dreams of trump — wall construction with Mexico. It is also possible to healthcare reform — it’s hard to say whether it is better or worse system “Obamacar”. Very likely large-scale reconstruction projects of infrastructure in the country. It is possible and advantageous for the U.S. trade Treaty with China.
But in any case liberal the public would be disheartened and count the days until the end of the presidency of the trump, because the level of dislike of the President’s personality and style of his leadership of this group is unprecedented. The sabotage of the bureaucracy and the press attacks will continue and may even intensify.
the Problem is that trump represents an existential threat to the democratic party and its sponsors. Trump is not just competing with the Democrats for power and cash flows. And then sending signals that it is time to end the system of privileges for African Americans, the creation of which was built decades relations of the democratic party with the Negro minority, constituting a quarter of the electorate, trump threatened on the electoral potential of the party. In the same vein — conceived trump immigration reform, mainly aimed at reducing the influx of migrants from Latin America, most of which with citizenship vote for the Democrats.
trump also made it clear that he intends to curtail the processes of globalization, and has managed to take significant steps in this direction. But globalization in recent decades has brought huge profits to financial capital, multinational corporations and high-tech companies, who are the main sponsors of the democratic party.
In light of these irreconcilable differences, some analysts do not rule out that trump may suffer the fate of the Kennedy brothers. In this scenario, an optimistic scenario would be a tragedy. The post intercede Pens with all its consequences.
But this is the worst and unlikely turn of events. All four years until the next election the Democrats will poison the life of the Tramp and to prepare for a decisive battle with the Republicans to reverse all transformations of the current head of the White house. Relations with Russia any scenario, significant changes will not.
Suppose the Democrats win. I specifically do not name a winner as it is not excluded that before the officialth nomination of a candidate for the party leadership decides to replace the decrepit Biden, who can not win only because of mass antipathy of voters to Trump, to a more sane figure. If votes are distributed in favor of the Democrats with a minimum margin from the Republicans, hardly trump admits defeat — he will accuse the opponents that they stole the victory from him. It is possible that he will urge his supporters, by the way, well armed, to protest actions that could lead to serious clashes with the activists of the “black Lives matter”, “anti-fascists” and other anarchist and leftist groups.
But if the White house comes to Biden, and both houses of Congress fall into the hands of Democrats, we can expect big changes. Unable to run the country Biden will play a nominal role, the real control will pass to others. Who is going to be hard to say; most likely, the progressives — the leftist wing of the democratic party, whose role in recent years has been very noticeable. Street unrest of recent time has gained progressives particular weight, sufficient to dictate their views to the leadership of the party and its leaders in Congress, or even to take their places.
And here begins sweeping reforms — primarily the tax. Taxes will rise for everyone, but for wealthy Americans and businesses, they can become prohibitive. Progressives will need huge funds for their maareformi climate protection, health, education, reparations to descendants of slaves — in keeping with their doctrine of social justice, reduce the gap between rich and poor. Most likely, none of these attempts fail, as many wealthy people and many businesses leave the country in search of a more benign tax jurisdictions. And restore the affected by the pandemic economy with this approach unlikely to succeed.
the country will continue to run amok social censorship, when “politically incorrect” statement starts bullying in social networks, stigma among the neighborhood environment, and employers, for fear of problems, prefer to dismiss the criminal “etiquette unanimity”. Most likely, America will continue the change of cultural paradigm — the demolition of monuments, the rejection of the glorification of American history, her conviction, the substitution of traditional American ideals, on ideas of the socialist persuasion.
the Result could be armed resistance to those who do not want to lose the America what it was before. The trump, to which liberals of all stripes feel a burning dislike, if he doesn’t have time to leave the country, unable to wait for the trial and prison.
If the choice of Biden will be better able to guide people, but at least the Senate will remain in the hands of ��Republican, progressives will no longer feel so at ease, and America will crash the entire depth of prepared leftists of the abyss. However, a marked left shift can not be avoided, and hence the recovery of the economy if it starts, it will be very slow. It will prevent tax increases and excessive government regulation, as is usually the case in a democracy. In any case Trump to avoid problems with the justice system, and relations with Russia, is also likely to worsen.
I Write all this with great bitterness, sincerely wanting to be mistaken in their dismal predictions. It’s hard for me to see today destroying the country in which I spent most of my life and all the problems I saw many things that deserve respect.