The expert assessed the probability of full scale war between Iran and the United States

President of the United States Donald trump ordered the US Navy to open fire on the Iranian boats in the Persian Gulf. Earlier, the Pentagon called “provocative” actions of patrol vessels of the Iranian Navy, which maneuver in the path of American ships. The Iranian authorities, on the contrary, condemned the US military presence near its Maritime borders and demanded from the American authorities to reduce the degree of tension in the region. Will there be new confrontations and open war between the US and Iran?

against the background of a planetary pandemic, the situation in the Persian Gulf at the time remained outside of the agenda in the world media. However, the worsening in the region threatens to escalate into war.

In the past two weeks warships of the US Navy and Iran several times came into collision in the Strait of Hormuz, in the heart of Kish island and the Persian Strait. Iranian border boats hindered the promotion of the us Navy to the Maritime borders of Iran, making maneuvers on the route of ships of the U.S. Navy.

the Pentagon and the White house Iran’s actions called “provocative” and “violate the norms of freedom of navigation”. The us authorities claim that US Navy ships did not come close to the Iranian border and made regular raids in international waters.

To counter the “Iranian aggression”, the US President Donald trump gave the order to the Navy to open fire on Iranian patrol boats.

“I have instructed the U.S. Navy to shoot down and destroy any Iranian vessels if they are to pursue our ships at sea,” wrote trump in his Twitter microblog.

According to experts, the statement of the trump reiterates taken in Washington in January of this year, the course for a military confrontation with Iran. As noted in conversation with “MK” military expert Yuri Lyamin, military tension in the region has increased substantially, and the decisions of the American leadership can lead to regional conflict.

trump Statements threatening a new war?

the Escalation in the Persian Gulf will not disappear over the past months. After the events in January (the killing of Iranian General Kassem Suleimani by the U.S. air force. – “MK”) the country was on the verge of conflict, the probability of which since the beginning of the epidemic has not decreased. Now play the part of the muscles, applications. Trump threatens, Iran responds in kind, and any exacerbation can cause an open conflict.

-That is, if American ships open fire on the Iranian boats – the answer?

-Yes. Of course, on the published video where the Iranian and American navies faced in the Persian Gulf are visible, machine-gun boats, they are much of a threat to US Navy ships are not. But in the same area are always present and missile boats and larger vessels that can give US an adequate response. The probability of collision is large because the Iranians in case of aggravation will not request permission to Tehran to return fire. They have such decisions – a prerogative of the immediate regional command. That is, the situation can move into the stage of military confrontation in a matter of minutes.

After the outbreak of the coronavirus Persian Gulf left the aircraft carrier “Theodore Roosevelt” what forces remained in the region of the United States?

-Traditionally, the waters of the Persian Gulf are the rocket ships of the 5th fleet of the US Navy bases in Qatar and Saudi Arabia are the military planes, including strategic bombers. That is, the forces on the answer without any additional reinforcements they in any case have something to wage war.

-what this can oppose Iran?

-On the Islands in the Gulf of Hormuz hosted launchers anti-ship missiles of different range and power. Not so long ago some of them left the underground hangars and went directly to the coastal zone. How many launchers are concentrated in this district is unknown, but we can definitely say that the Iranians expect to use them to inflict serious damage. A few days ago in Iran said the emergence of a new anti-ship missile with range of 600 km. No evidence that this rocket was not given, but obviously such statements is a message to US.

-A is not trying whether Iran military activity to cause a change in world oil markets?

-I’m not an expert in this area, but even I can see that oil prices react poorly to the situation in the Persian Gulf. What happens if, God forbid, long-term conflict – a question for economists, he concluded

In January 2020, the U.S. air force launched a missile attack on the motorcade of Iranian General Kassem Suleimani in Baghdad. The attack Soleimani and his accompanying Iranian officers were killed. In response to the attack, Iran fired missiles at US military bases in Iraq. Tehran has repeatedly said that operation retribution for the death of Soleimani will continue regardless of how much time passes from the day of his death.