In times of crisis it’s nice and reassuring for the individual to be able to lean on a solid rock.
But now begins the even Denmark’s largest bank to shake of the hand. In a new forecast for the Danish economy recognises Danske Bank, that the are confused and don’t actually know how the Danish economy will develop.
‘We must admit that a forecast made at this stage will most likely make mistakes in crucial areas,’ writes the chief economist of Danish Bank Las Olsen in the forecast, which the bank released on Friday morning.
It is not just it, you need to get to know as a homeowner, consumer or employee, who do not know, whether you have a job tomorrow or not. But how do we as individuals must deal with the uncertainty, we return to.
First, the economic backdrop: Las Olsen opens for B. T. to call the economic situation of ‘really unpleasant’.
“It is not very satisfactory not to be able to point to what is going to happen. But it is going on right now, reminiscent not of anything we have seen before. We wont be able to draw on the experience, but we have not seen anything like this before, and it makes it difficult to predict the economic development. The situation is unique,” he says.
During the financial crisis, the general consumer in the grove drag – but for reduced flare continue his life, and consumption as in the past. The consumer may not today.
“During the financial crisis there was a demand, because people and companies lost income and trust and therefore stopped buying and investing. Today we are in a completely unfamiliar situation, where there is a lack of supply. Companies can in a broad sense not produce. Can we as consumers do not go to a restaurant or café, because they are closed. We can’t travel, and we can’t buy clothes in physical stores, because they are closed,” said Las Olsen.
at the same time is the decommissioning of the economy has gone significantly faster than during the financial crisis, points out the Las Olsen.
He adds, that we, metaphorically speaking, that we are in a black hole, but not how deep the hole ends up being, and when we come up again.
But when Denmark’s largest bank no longer has grip on how the economy will develop, how should we then act on each?
Although the economic future is uncertain, and Las Olsen stresses that not even an economist is equipped with a spåkugle, dare he, however, come with some good advice.
Here he answers on how Danish consumers, homeowners and employees can handle five situations, as they may stand in right now:
“It is still possible to have a nice household for most people. During the financial crisis was very much of the consumption lånefinansieret. This time, we have a situation, where the danes have saved a lot up in the years before coronakrisen.”
“But if your job is in imminent danger of being killed, I would probably try to get saved up a bit. You do not do society a service by gambling with his personal finances. But one must also not get caught by the bad mood, if there is any reason for it.”
“It comes very much depends on the individual’s situation. If there is a big risk that you lose your job, then it may be a good idea to wait and see.”
But even in the worst of times, it’s not the majority of people who lose their job, but few. In many places there remains a high level of job security, for example if you are a doctor, but if you work at or own a restaurant, I would probably just wait and see.”
“Here you have to be careful, for even now there are not very many buyers, among other things, because it is difficult at all to come out to look at homes, even if it tends to be the peak season for it now, and forward to easter.”
“The economic uncertainty and the uncertainty about the long-term interest rates (on mortgage bonds, red.) does not increase the desire to buy a house. We are facing a period with very few home sales and falling prices. Locally, however, it may well be that you can find a buyer, but many will find that it will be difficult to sell in a while.”
“You must stick to your strategy from before coronakrisen. It is a very bad idea to switch back and forth between shares.”
“Many are going to switch away from shares when they have fallen, and then buy them again when they are increased. And then you end up with to make a bad trade. This also applies if it is the same pension provider, who invests one’s savings.”
“There will quite rightly spent a lot of public money now on the stimulus, and it is money, you can’t use it again on the other side of the crisis. It could be velfærdspersonale, green transition or tax cuts.”
“But we can rejoice that the state went into the crisis with a net worth and a large public surpluses. So we should not be out in an emergency savings plan, when this is over. It is not needed. Fortunately. But there comes a political fight about how should be the priority.”
the Danske Bank expects, in its very uncertain forecast that the unemployment rate will be back at the low level from before coronakrisen in the course of 2022.