A “new phase of the war” is now coming, says Carlo Masala, Professor of International Relations at the Bundeswehr University in Munich. He believes that the war is now turning and explains in the “Stern” podcast “Ukraine – the situation” why Putin uses Iranian drones and not missiles.
According to Masala, Russia needs a “breathing space”. “That would be a ceasefire,” the military expert continues. He could therefore imagine that Putin would first open a second “front in Belarus” in order to increase the pressure on the Ukrainians, signal an ongoing war and thus improve his negotiating position. And then Putin could make an offer for a ceasefire because he can’t achieve much in Ukraine anyway, says Masala.
“The war is turning right now,” the advantages would lie with the Russian Federation, according to the political professor. The Ukrainian offensive has come to a halt, he says appraisingly. That is why “a new phase of the war” is now beginning. There are “fighting in the east and fighting in the south, we have a second Belarusian front, so to speak, we are shelling the big cities,” explains Masala. The Ukrainians had been deprived of the initiative.
Russia has again attacked several cities in Ukraine this week, using a number of kamikaze drones from Iran, according to many war observers. The leadership in Tehran denies having supplied Russia with such disposable drones.
But Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) also cast doubt on this account. “The kamikaze drones that were shot down there and that also hit Kyiv, it’s very, very clear where they come from,” said the Green politician to the ZDF “heute journal”. Four people were killed in the morning drone strikes on Kyiv, including a young couple with a pregnant wife.
“There is no economic relationship between the shelling and the success achieved,” Masala explains in the “Stern” podcast, explaining why Putin used Iranian drones and not rockets for the brutal attack. Above all, he means that Putin had headed for civilian targets in Kyiv and that this would not lead to any progress in the war.
In addition, “the rockets are expensive”. The Kremlin boss has to hold back his material because he needs it on other fronts. The sanctions from Europe and the USA could also have slowed down Russian arms production.
Putin’s economic adviser Andrei Illarionov and now works as an economist in the United States. In an interview he unpacked about the economic situation in Russia. His summary: in real terms, Russia’s reserves are only enough for one year of war.
The Russian army is being pushed back further and further in Ukraine. The warfare is dividing Putin’s apparatus of power. The mobilization enrages Russian citizens. Problem after problem for the President. He is caught in 7 self-imposed traps.
Hardly anyone “reads” Vladimir Putin and the Russians as knowledgeably as the Russian writer Viktor Erofeev, who fled to Germany. Germany’s Chancellor should meet with him. And be prepared for some uncomfortable truths.
