Named the conditions for a strong strengthening of rouble in the beginning of summer

Especially for “the Russian newspaper” George Vashchenko, head of Department of trading operations on the Russian stock market IR “freedom Finance”, reviewed what will now be to navigate the markets. And said one of the possible scenarios for the third quarter.

Photo: Yegor Aleev/TASS how much will in reality reduce the production of oil traders, OPEC+

Now the center of attention international trade statistics of China in March – said the expert. It should be noted that the monthly trade balance, although quite volatile, but in January and February fell to minus $ 35 billion in that time, as in December it rose to 472 billion.

the Situation of shock, but also predict the improvement. However, this depends not only on China, whose economy is on the mend. And also on how quickly boils life in the importing countries and when the United States, the European Union and Russia will open the border. The consensus forecast assumes that the trade deficit will be reduced. But, in my opinion, there is no reason for optimism. March and April – very heavy months.

Accordingly, the negative reaction of stock markets will affect the oil and the ruble. After OPEC meeting the price of oil remained above $ 30 per barrel. But companies in Russia will have to reduce production and processing to reduce supply mainly to the domestic market (it still slipped sharply against the background of the quarantine). The volume of export sales when the price of oil above $ 30 by Brent (Urals price much lower) will try to save.

However, after the OPEC meeting+ there is no guarantee that price will not fall. The reduction of production eliminates the risk of emergency overflow storage (this would have deepened the crisis), but this measure is insufficient to maintain the market.

Photo: Maxim Blinov/RIA Novosti Central Bank allowed banks deleted mortgage

Should the recovery in economic activity in Europe, the USA and the world in General, how quickly this happens will depend on the demand for oil. The rapid recovery of demand in the market may even be a short-term deficit. And we know that in this case the price can grow very quickly. So the chance of strong appreciation in the second and third quarter of the rouble has. Although, in my opinion, now is to focus on the conservative scenario.

in the meantime, we expect that the Finance Ministry will disclose what securities it will offer to investors at auction. And depending on how the auction will take place and what expectations will the participants at the Central Bank rate will be traded and the ruble. In my opinion, the end of the week probable rise of the dollar above 77 rubles, Euro above $ 85.

And on Tuesday, April 14, expect quiet trading. And predict the 73-74 range,50 in USD/RUB, 79,50-81 EUR/RUB. Closure will depend on external events – in the US, the members of the Federal reserve, the optimism which might encourage players on the world market to buy dollars. Or, conversely, to sell.