he Also specially to the “Russian newspaper” has told, how much would now cost the Russian currency without the support of the Bank of Russia and to what level has to rise in price of oil for the normalization of the situation in the financial markets.
Brent crude fell to 22 dollars a barrel
– this week – said the expert – investors ‘ attention will again be confined to the dynamics of the spread of the disease. And to week, reflecting the impact of this problem on the global economy.
the USD/RUB will look weaker due to the probable decline of the American currency on the external market caused by the unprecedented monetary stimulus of the fed, as well as the negative economic statistics.
the Greenback on Monday made another attempt to overcome 80 rubles. And in the case of the next wave of sales in foreign markets we can see a new attack on 4-year-old top – 82 of the ruble. EUR/RUB is able once again to test the level of 90 rubles.
the Main influence on all markets will have the situation with the pandemic and possible new measures from the authorities. If they are generally restrictive markets may experience another wave of decline. If will take additional measures of monetary easing – this will support the restoration of the exchange of assets.
Siluanov: Russia’s GDP at the beginning of the year rose 2.3%
in the meantime, the Russian FX market remains in line with the global trend, showing high volatility. The dramatic failures of the ruble replaced by an equally rapid recovery. And these movements occur near 4-year lows, reached the Russian currency in the middle of the month.
Despite the strong decline of the ruble in March, it is not included in your rate big drop of oil. Why the Russian currency is now significantly overvalued to the oil factor, which is reflected in a minimum in ten years, the ruble value of oil dropped below 2000 rubles.
at the beginning of the month it was worth more than 3,000 rubles, that is, at current levels quotes oil, the dollar could be worth $ 100 and above. However, this does not happen because of the actions of Bank of Russia, which sells foreign currency on the market within the framework of reverse of execution of the budget rules.
the dollar exceeded 80 rubles
However, the risks of further weakening of the ruble remains high. Of course, in the short term we can see a pretty serious recovery of the Russian currency, if the peak of the epidemic of the coronavirus is passed. Or economic data are not as dismal as it is now, many investors fear.
However, in order for the ruble came on the path of sustainable growth, weakening the Euro and the dollar, oil prices have to go to higher levels and to secure its place over at least $ 40 per barrel mark Brent. But it will be difficult to achieve without a new agreement for oil producers, which would have prevented the imbalance in the oil market from both demand and supply.