the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko during a private speech before the activists of the Minsk region made a number of significant statements. His speech was clearly not composed by speechwriters: “the old man” spoke very openly, that is, “from the heart”. His words show that he realizes it is facing threats. Another question, will he be able to respond in appropriate manner.

While it is clear that the Belarusian head goes the beaten track, blaming all of what is happening – from West to East. However, the slope is this time clearly to the Eastern side.

“the Elections will be very interesting, and after the election — will be even more interesting. I promise you,” said Alexander Lukashenko. Recall that many experts are predicting that the upcoming elections in Belarus will be attempted color revolution. The classic scenario: the opposition to declare the elections “unfair”, rigged and under this pretext bring people to the streets. Lukashenka’s words show that he is well aware of this danger: “the Shattered situation inside the country is brought to a white heat, is offensive to the current government”, he warned.

Russia also followed a hairpin and a warning, saying “Russia — it is in a nightmare could not imagine that they do not have this ally”.

According to Lukashenko, Belarusians to his need to call good. “We stand, we say, in mud huts to die, but not die. We’ll survive, but who will you. You think.” Here the President of Belarus quite frankly describes the algorithm of their interaction with the Russian leadership. She reminds the scheme on which operated at the time, Viktor Yanukovych to negotiate for their countries different preferences from Russia, playing on her fear of losing an ally and that “we drew the attention of the Americans.” How it ended for Yanukovych, remember everything.

Lukashenko also touched on the subject of repression against his opponents in the election. “Yes, I gave the signal with Tikhanovski. I something not so did?” – admitted the President. (blogger Sergei tikhanovski, the author of the slogan “Stop the cockroach”, is now under arrest). He also launched into a lengthy discourse about the arrested banker Victor Babariko and the case of Belgazprombank, who until recently headed. It turns out, is also first – signal “partners” in the East: “When we have this Gazprom Bank slammed, they all understood”. According to him, through the Bank “laundered and in Latvia listed the” $ 640 million.

“And when I see millions and millions of dollars pumped — it’s on us-earned money. – said Lukashenko. – Tell me, what should be my actions?” The President of Belarus also said, what exactly is the fault of “BGB”: “When�� carried out the excavation in the Bank — that struck me — in all the major cells lying stick, hard drives and mountains of documents. And when I was told about USB flash drives and hard drives, I realized that there is a huge reservoir of information.” Apparently, very secret time it took to arrest the former owner of the Bank Victor Babariko – just when he became the most popular opposition candidate. Well, who would believe it, Alexander Grigorievich? But if you’re a long time all knew about Babariko, why didn’t you stop him before? Wait till he “takes off”, will become popular?

I believe that this speech, Lukashenko shows he is turning into a classic “predlagaemogo” President. He is justified – and the arrest of opposition and action against “Gazprom” the Bank is sending signals to Moscow recalls its past accomplishments. All this is not very good.

Past achievements do not matter, a strong leader never justified and did not apologize. He just says, “I did it because it was necessary.” Almost all known heads of state, have become “victims of” color revolutions, made an identical error. They lost touch with reality, lose their ability to adequately (and most importantly, time) to respond to threats. They are seeking to preserve the image of a liberal and look good in the eyes of the West, quietly watching in front of them frolic destructive forces, preparing for their political end. Then suddenly, frantically, begin to use force indiscriminately and inadequately.

Shevardnadze watching sports in Parliament funny marginal Saakashvili. He also wanted to please the West and did nothing until then, until the talented boy did not break into the Parliament and not have driven him from the podium. To use force Shevardnadze decided not to, and if you want, then in that situation would have ended very badly for him.

Yanukovych was classic: flirting with the West, the cultivation of the nationalists, doing nothing, while enemies consistently capture all the institutions of society. The inability to calculate and neutralize the enemies in their own environment. And suddenly – inadequate and untimely use of force. The end of the logical.

During the color revolution the leader of the state is under such pressure from all sides, begins to make mistakes. That Lukashenko began to make mistakes. Arrests during the election campaign seem totally inappropriate, and chosen for them, an excuse is ridiculous and far-fetched. Babariko could be completely painless to stop at an earlier stage. And if the authorities didn’t know about his plans – it is a question for intelligence agencies.

There is an anecdote: “Color revolution is impossible in USA, because there is no American posolst��a”. In fact, in the US it is possible, only there is hardly a country that can Fund U.S. opposition because of the money it would take very much.

But leaders who are insured against colour revolutions, still are. However pathetic it sounds, but it is truly the people’s leaders. Such can not do anything, and the American Consulate here is powerless. In August Lukashenko will pass the exam if he can claim the role of a leader.