This is very similar to election, but, according to assurances of officials, the election is not. This is very similar to a referendum but, according to assurances of the same officials, the referendum is not. What, then, is the meaning of the popular vote for amendments to the Constitution, which should be completed this Wednesday?
that this event will set the tone and the emotional background of our policy for many years to come. In modern Russia the Federal government, in principle, can not lose at the polls. The struggle therefore is not the fact of victory, and its “quality” – for how compelling a national grant Putin the opportunity to run for the presidency for the new period will look like in the eyes of society.
Many historians believe the fatal mistake of Gorbachev, the fact that he decided not to go through the crucible of popular election for the presidency of the Union, and was satisfied with his election to this position by members of the Congress of people’s deputies.
I believe this approach is a manifestation of formalism. Error of Gorbachev’s error was that he lost control over political processes in the state. Everything else is deeply secondary. But, when the question of power, to disregard the symbolic and even sacred importance of the popular “blessing of the Kingdom” is not worth it.
Insisting on the involvement of citizens in the process of approval of the constitutional amendments, Putin has made a decision that was only true from the point of view of its political interests. Redrawing of the Basic law, consecrated only by the decision of Parliament, would give the law of the GDP again to qualify for the presidency one level of moral legitimacy. And the same edit is already approved by national referendum — is completely different.
Absolutely justified, from the point of view of logic of the political process, was the Kremlin’s decision not to postpone the vote on a hypothetical point in the future when the coronavirus is finally gone from our lives. In politics it is very important not to “miss the train” – to do all the time. Indefinitely postponing a decision is often equivalent if not from the refusal of its adoption, then certainly its precipitation from the political agenda.
therefore, after weighing all the pros and cons, the government bit the bullet and went to vote in the conditions when Russia continues to be listed among the world Champions for the number of patients with coronavirus.
But the fact that the vote right now is for the Kremlin “the lesser of two evils”, the nickname by the way does not diminish the complexity of the task that now faces the government. The decision to give citizens the right to vote online — it is also the lesser of two evils, a sure way to increase attendance and to involve �� approval procedure of constitutional amendments those who due to security reasons, while not morally ready to head to hike to the polling station.
But at the same time it is a political experiment with quite obvious results. As the events of the end of 2011, the level of trust ( or mistrust) of citizens to the official results of the elections can easily become the Achilles heel of our political system and literally overnight change the balance of forces in the country.
Not to go for a partial transfer of voting online, the authorities could not. But how justified the result will be that the decision will be clear only after the first of July. Much depends whether the government will be able to use the current tactics of the opponents of the amendments — a public demonstration of the ability to vote twice, or even three times — against them.
I do Not want anyone to suggest any “creative ideas”. But the fact that a game called “catch the forger’s hand” can play not only those trying to prove the unreliability of the electoral system, lies on the surface. After summing up the results of voting, the government will try to prove: if anyone tried to falsify the results so that the opposition and opponents of the amendments. I think that there is no need to add: trying to prove can be and attempt to punish.
Another risk factor for the government when the vote is, of course, all terribly boring, but it has not gone coronavirus. And no, I don’t mean hypothetical possibility of infecting someone at the polling station. The situation we need to look wider.
Russia is a country where love all kinds of conspiracy theories. One of the most popular of such theories is: the inhabitants of Russia specifically “released” to give them the opportunity to vote in terms of recovery, all signs and attributes of a normal life. And as soon as we fulfill their civic duty, cheerfully we will drive back to the quarantine. Seriously comment on all of the above — in vain to waste time. But, if after a few weeks, the coronavirus in Russia suddenly cease to “retreat”, and start to re-occur, is a serious blow to the reputation of the government.
However, we will not try to look in the future. Let’s talk about what is happening right now. And there is, in my opinion, is the following: we go through one of the most important reference points in contemporary history of Russia. The fact that the ballot is not the name of Putin, and a certain impersonal package of amendments to the Constitution, a legal formality. In fact, the country is asked to give GDP a fresh vote of confidence. Soon find out, NASKOonly significant would be the mandate.