Plus in Russia was extended for non-business days until 30 April. All of this creates interesting prospects for the ruble.
Especially for “the Russian newspaper” George Vashchenko, head of Department of trading operations on the Russian stock market IR “freedom Finance”, told how may behave the Russian currency in April.
the Central Bank will publish data on the restrictions on banks to attract deposits
– Players will continue to speculate on the background of an extraordinary summit of OPEC+, and with high probability, it will be held with the participation of representatives of the United States, the expert predicts. – We are talking about an unprecedented reduction in the amount of 10 million barrel per day or more, that is, about 10 percent world production.
the Central event in the coming days for the financial market will be negotiations OPEC+. Received conflicting information regarding reach agreement for the reduction and assessment of impact on the market.
it is Worth noting that immediately to cut production by 10 million barrel impossible. Most likely, we are talking about a technical reduction. That is, the extracted volume will be stored or disposed of. And this, in turn, will not remove the risk of overflow of storage tanks.
in addition, due to the unprecedented decline in economic activity and uncertain prospects for the timing of the completion of the pandemic coronavirus, oil consumption at a low level is long enough (at least two months). So the rapid recovery of the pre-crisis level should not count. U.S. unemployment in April will grow. And the same trend will be observed in most, if not all, G20 countries.
In Russia the situation is aggravated by the quarantine, which falls in economic activity. Inflationary pressure is moderate, but if the crisis drags on, it will inevitably affect the exchange rate. The first shock has passed, because of the quarantine consumer activity is low. Importers also reduced purchases abroad, they need less currency. But the downturn in the economy leads to capital outflow, and gradually, this process is among the main reasons for the promotion of inflation.
Novak: States should participate in the reduction of oil production
this week the pair USD/RUB will exhibit increased volatility, but on the condition that the price of oil stabiliziruemost in the range of 25-30 dollars per barrel.
In April, the Central Bank will decide what to do with key rate, it largely will depend on sentiment in the markets. Still, all options are possible. The rate reduction is only valid in the context of maintaining investor confidence, rebound in oil prices and clarify prospects for the end of the quarantine. And if the impact of coronavirus on the economy will be devastating.
Then we can expect that by the end of April the USD/RUB below 80. But if the situation in the Russian and global economy will rapidly deteriorate, and in the oil market there was a new price shock, the exchange rate USD/RUB can update a maximum in the range of 80-90. And the Central Bank will raise rates to protect the ruble from sharp depreciation.