the Ruble strengthened last week, even in the first half, when oil was taking the position. When she turned to growth, the ruble gained momentum. And it remained in force at the start of a new week. Positive for the Russian currency is as the breaking of the downtrend of oil and hopes for a coordinated “whole world” production cuts, and turn to growth stock indices. The ruble gained against the dollar, despite the strengthening of the position of the latter to most European currencies.
trump threatened to impose tariffs on imported oil
When the dust cleared from the collapse of the stock markets in the first half of March, appeared on the horizon buyers who are attempting to overestimate the value of various assets. And it allows the ruble to recover some of the losses last month. The Russian currency has been oversold, and no new collapses in the stock markets of its purchase began to look like not such a bad idea from current levels.
Purchase of the ruble can obtain additional basis in the form of a probable concerted production cuts from OPEC, Russia and America (including USA, Canada and Brazil). It is expected that the discussions within OPEC+ will take place on Thursday and Friday will be call relevant Ministers of the G20 on the need of reducing production.
in Addition to speculative demand, is a fundamental factor to support the ruble promises to be a fall in demand for foreign goods and travel. Isolation in Russia promises to lead to a failure of demand for foreign goods, making commodities a priority buyers. This causes a reduction in the demand for the currency.
the Ruble will come to the psychologically important rate on the background of the transaction OPEC+
the development of the corrective recovery of the ruble may lead to 74 USDRUB and EURRUB to 81,5 in the upcoming couple of weeks in the case of rebound of the markets. A move below those levels will allow you to look at the strengthening of the ruble as a more lasting trend.
However, after the initial rebound could go further reversal of currency to growth, when the world will face and will be able to fully track the long-term consequences of widespread quarantine and the collapse of demand for raw materials and energy. So it is worth to take a cautious short-term setbacks of the ruble – it is impossible to exclude that in the coming weeks, his growth begins to slip.
