Dima, pandemic caused many to leave the apartment and go to the garden or just to relieve the housing for the city. All whether come back or life will never be the same?
Dmitry Narinsky: I am Sure that in the near future will be formed the new demands on standards of living, and these queries will change the look of cities. Life on the 39th floor of a 45 storey apartment building in the 12-million city of Wuhan will never be an attractive model that we want to replicate and offer to their children.
Buyers have shown an unhealthy interest in suburban housing
In the concept of comfort will include not only the quality of the street coverage and playgrounds in the yard, but the population density, the possibility of obtaining services near the place of residence and the level of telecommunications. Ultimately, this will lead to a change in the spatial structure of cities, it will not develop in the direction of monocentric areas. Rather, this structure can be called a cell.
All settle down in villages and small towns?
Dmitry Narinsky: Small towns with population less than 100 thousand – is not very sustainable education. The most promising development areas with a population from 100 to 250-300 thousand people. If the cities are effectively integrated into the overall telecommunication system, the life in them will be no different from life in megacities.
You believe that some Manager of the office in “Moscow-city” will go live, say, in the city of Liski of the Voronezh region?
Experts: Crisis will become a serious impetus to changes in the labour market
Dmitry Narinsky: to Begin with, which is likely the Manager will lose his job. At least experience much transformirovalsya. It’s not a question of the behavior of the individual, it is a question of models of labor activity as a whole. The practice of quarantine will show that the Manager function is easy to perform, not being in the office. The employer will understand that he need not remove the large office in the center of Moscow – there will be only those whose presence is really necessary.
the Rest will move to other locations that will be cheaper. The city of Liski will be a new chance to create new jobs if there will be able to develop the telecommunications infrastructure. Place of work will not be so isolated from the place of residence. This is a very long-term trend, which should lead to system changes relationship to the city.
What do you mean?
Dmitry Narinsky: the Whole system of regulation of urban planning is now based on functional zoning. We distinguish places of residence, work, leisure and other activities. This principle was born in the early twentieth century and today is sorely outdated. We nimirum housing, places of employment, etc. will change not only the attitude to these seemingly familiar things, but to the whole area of services. The concept of “dwelling house” should fall into Oblivion. People can live, work, eat and relax within the same building.
Changes will affect not only the building but also to the territory as a whole. If more people work outside the office, then changing their transport behavior. The concept of “rush hour” caused by work behavior characteristic of the twentieth century.
a few years ago in Moscow as effective measures to combat traffic jams, experts were asked to differentiate the beginning of a working day for social groups. Onofficially rejected it, but in practice the process went smoothly. Now this will happen o the spot and landslide. If the person does not have to go to work in the city centre, it will seek to find the entire set of services near the place of residence and preferably within walking distance.
Turns out, the new metro line and authorsbasca, which recently appeared in our cities, is not necessary?
Dmitry Narinsky: We, until recently, lived in the logic of twentieth century logic capacity indicators: number of people, machines, square meters etc. the Last hundred years Russia just followed the path of the seal and centralization of cities. Moscow grew, and no crisis could not stop its growth. The twentieth century was delayed. So it was with XIX, which ended only with the outbreak of the First world war, not by the calendar. The twentieth century will end only now, in 2020.
Number of passengers in the Moscow metro decreased seven times
So what is to prevent us to return to our cities?
Dmitry Narinsky: we come To the realization of the value of population density. It is not so much aesthetic comfort as a social necessity. More recently, we have actively proposed the concept of spatial development of the country based on the cities, and advocated for a greater number of cities in our country. We actively impose the Chinese model of development. The ideologues of the cities spoke about the economic effects of this model: the city as machine for the sale of goods and services. The authors of this concept didn’t want to hear anything about the environment, and other factors, the city developedia, including epidemiological.
Current events have proven that no one needs money, if people are dying
Current events have revealed the vulnerability of this position is you don’t need the money, if people are dying. When we increase the population density is prohibitive, we automatically decreases the quality of life. It is necessary to study the history of the emergence of massive infections over the past 10 years to understand that many of them appeared in the crowded cities of China. If the man himself can not regulate the density of population, it will regulate the nature of the most terrible methods.
If people understand that the city brings not only opportunities but also threats, probably, their attitude to the cities will change. In this sense, the concept is close to Russia, – distributed population on medium and small cities should get a boost.
Analysts “Yandex.Cards” announced the disappearance of traffic jams in major cities
do You think people are after the quarantine would be willing to part with these opportunities (primarily by making money) in favor of quality of life?
Dmitry Narinsky: first, recent events have proven that people in large cities can lose revenue, for which they went. That is, the city does not guarantee the stability of income. Secondly, I am sure that there will be more industries and activities that will develop in small towns. With the development of the Internet and other means of communication remote work with the same success can be carried out, for example, from Tarusa. You can live in Tarusa and working as a teacher in Moscow.
There are companies that physically need to drive every day to work. It is impossible to translate udalenku dairy.
Dmitry Narinsky: Modern technology will evolve in many directions, including the direction of robotics processes. And the share of physical labor associated with the need to stay at the bench, will inevitably decrease. Classic manufacturing – plants with a large number of staff will leave in the past.
Russia is on the threshold of the fourth industrial revolution. All the industrialization that was happening in the country in the 30-ies of XX century it was the second industrial revolution. We then experienced rapidly, actively, and saw traces of this second industrial revolution. Third, we experienced gradually. It actually coincided with the disintegration of the country. And so in the memory of people remained largely an experience of political turmoil than that of the third industrial revolution. But she came to us in the form of digitalization.
Infographics “RG”/ Alexandr Chistov/ Tatyana Karabut
Now is the next step robotics. Before the pandemic, this process was slow, at a pace it could take decades. But the present events clearly spur this process – I think it will happen within the next 10 years. With this new production and, consequently, employees will also be distributed in space. And it’s not exactly fantasy, but very real prospects for the next decade.
In the history of the planet there are many examples when people left the inhabited city. The most famous of them – Machu Picchu (Peru), Teotihuacan (Mexico), Angkor (Cambodia), Petra (Jordan). So, in Teotihuacan lived more than 125 thousand people. The town was founded in the III century BC, and was abandoned in the VII century. According to scientists, the destruction of the city was triggered by the drought which led to starvation and social conflict. Angkor was the center of Khmer Empire and consider thealsya the largest city of that time. 800 years ago there lived about one million people. The city was deserted in the fifteenth century. Scientists still can’t agree why people left him. One of the versions – the fight against the epidemic.