The crisis in Belarus focused the attention of the whole world. The protests disagree with the results of the presidential elections last only five days, however, Western countries are already actively trying to mediate in the dialogue between the opposition and the authorities. Russia has so far refrained from direct steps to resolve the situation in a neighboring state. What prevents Moscow to become the initiator of the peace process, to understand “Газета.Ru”.
Belarusian protest disagree with the results of the presidential elections continues less than a week, but the international community is already trying to resolve the crisis situation.
Particularly active in this issue demonstrate, Lithuania and Poland — countries that have been trying to include Belarus in its sphere of influence, thereby weakening the Association of the Republic with Russia.
For example, in Lithuania was forced to leave the Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovski. And the President of this country, Gitanas Nausea first announced the appearance of a plan to resolve the situation in Belarus. Poland was the first country that started to sound the alarm about what is happening in the neighboring country — even in the morning, the day after the elections, Warsaw urged the EU to hold emergency summit on the events in Belarus.
In parallel, from Lithuania and Poland calls for a weakening of relations between Minsk and Moscow.
In these countries fear that Russia could take a moment to conduct an in-depth integration within the Union State, which struggled terribly in recent years, Alexander Lukashenko. Member of European Parliament from Poland Jacek Saryusz-Wolski has called on the EU to impose sanctions for the brutal crackdown on peaceful rallies against Russia, and not the Belarusian leadership.
His words showed that Moscow prevent “construction of democracy” in Belarus. To impose sanctions against Minsk — to punish the sword, not the hand that holds it, said Saryusz-Wolski.
Such rhetoric from the member countries of the EU threaten the creation around Russia of a negative image that in 2014 it was possible to observe on the example of the Ukrainian crisis. While European countries themselves, promoting initiative, earn the sympathy of the protesting population. Despite this threat, while Moscow did not attempt to resolve the conflict of the authorities and society.
The analyst Maxim Semenov believes that the difference in Russian and Western approaches to the situation in Belarus is explained by different political systems and political traditions.
“In the West, like publicity, in Russia, give preference to non-public backroom agreements,” says the expert.
In a conversation with “Газетой.Ru” Semenov said that in the framework of the Russian political Tr��of spacecraft Moscow to the last working with the leadership of the country and not cooperating with civil society.
This is indicated by the greetings of Vladimir Putin, addressed to Alexander Lukashenko on the day following the publication by the CEC of the preliminary results of the elections. As emphasized by Belarusian political analyst Dmitry Bolkunets, the Russian leadership could not to congratulate Lukashenko.
“Moscow proceeded from the data that gave an official Commission. Russia can not trust the Central election Commission of Belarus — such an order. In the framework of the Union state, we trust the public authorities each other and that trust,” explains the analyst.
What is happening now in Belarus, beyond the possible influence of Moscow. On the basis of the official Russian position, which has repeatedly declared, Russia does not interfere in the internal Affairs of other countries. And civil protest in Belarus — as such a case.
In the case of Belarus, the violation of this principle threatens scandal, which will only weaken the position of Moscow on the Belarusian direction.
“Russia does not interfere in the Belarusian political Affairs, because the Belarusian side did not ask for this intervention. Otherwise, if only the Russian leadership stated, would have started a grandiose international scandal. The hysteria was from the West that Russia is interfering in the elections in Belarus”, — says Dmitry Bolkunets.
The expert notes that the anti-Russian card has begun to play before the start of the current crisis. So, shortly before the elections in Belarus were detained 33 Russian citizen, whom the authorities of the Republic tried to present as mercenaries PMC “Wagner”, directed to Minsk for the destabilization of the situation in the Republic.
Although because of the elections this story a few pojavilas, and the Russians have already returned to the homeland narrative of “Russian intervention” has not disappeared. After the start of the protests the state of Belarusian media regularly release stories on the capture of certain “coordinators from Russia.” Such accusations were addressed to the came to Belarus as observers, employees of the human rights organization “Open Russia” Artem Mazenkova and Igor Rogov, and also to the address of the analysts — a citizen of Belarus Dmitry Bakunzi and associate Professor, faculty of world economy and world politics HSE Andrew Suzdaltsev.
“If the Russian official government appeal or offer some help, that will be immediately accused of meddling in the internal processes. Lukashenko was just waiting for this”, — says Dmitry Bolkunets.
In conditions when the government is unable to intervene in a neighboring state, this function takes civil society.
Events are already developing in under this scenario: 14 Aug principal owner and Chairman of the Board of Directors of “URALCHEM” Dmitry Mazepin on behalf of the Russian-Belarusian business Council called on Belarusian business, intellectuals and politicians to create a national salvation Committee. His appeal is also the appeal to Alyaksandr Lukashenka to recognize the “obvious facts of the protest tension in the society and, without wasting time to sit down at the table for peace detailed negotiations.”
“People do not need revolution, independence, civil war. Today this irreversible process is not yet too late to stop! It is only for those who sincerely love Belarus and Russia”, — the statement says Mazepin.
As noted in conversation with “Газетой.Ru” Andrew Suzdaltsev, we still cannot say that the position of Russia in this situation is passive.
According to the expert, Moscow is trying to promote the negotiations because it knows about the absolute inability to negotiate Alexander Lukashenko.
“He’s not going to relinquish power. He will not join the negotiations”, — says the expert, adding that obstacles exist to dialogue with the other side. “There is someone who could consolidated claim from the opposition. And the opposition really is not — she’s been defeated. This is purely national, and not political protest,” — says Suzdaltsev.
From this point of view and agree Maxim Semenov. The analyst points out that the current approach of the Russian authorities creates the risk of “what protesters consider Lukashenka’s Pro-Russian President who is doing everything on the orders of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.”
“As it was already in his time in Ukraine. So in this part I see a certain risk of increased anti-Russian sentiment in society. Just because Russia publicly bad explains his position and not communicates with the Belarusian society,” — concludes the expert.
In the meantime, Russia will monitor the situation, said Dmitry Bolkunets. And if at the end of this event the power in Belarus will change, Moscow will immediately begin a dialogue with it: “It’s without a doubt. So it was in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tbilisi and in other post-Soviet countries. The Russian position is more flexible than is commonly believed”.