Does anybody believe the polls anymore? For the die-hard pollsters, merit still remains in these highly dubious ‘public opinion’ tools. Real Clear Politics provides an indication as to how the electorate is likely to vote on November 3, and in the run-up to the presidential elections with absentee ballots and mail-in voting. According to the polls, the RCP average ending September 9, 2020, reflects that Biden has an overall advantage of +6.9 points over his opponent, President Donald Trump.
It is worth pointing out that Biden’s numbers have been trending lower while Trump’s numbers have been trending higher since July 27, 2020, when Biden was at 50.5%, and Trump was at 41.5%. What typically happens in the closing stages of a presidential race is that the polls tighten dramatically, as the policies of the candidates become known. This generally happens after each successive presidential debate, the first of which is slated take place on September 29, followed by October 15, and October 22, 2020.
Looking back – how candidates failed to capitalize on the debates
Depending on who comes out ahead in these debates, the pendulum will ultimately swing in one candidate’s favor. It’s tough to pick winners several weeks out; you definitely have better luck winning with online arcade games from Mansion Group. In the 2012 presidential election, then GOP contender Mitt Romney had a stellar debate against President Obama in Colorado, which the incumbent at the time attributed to altitude sickness. History will reveal that Romney failed to capitalize on his debate performances, ultimately succumbing to the superior oratory skills of President Obama who went on to win the presidential elections.
In 2016, novice political firebrand Donald Trump failed to impress against Hillary Clinton. Still, her wretched behavior with 17,000 emails that were destroyed at the State Department when she used a private server for official work ultimately got the better of her. Trump promised to drain the swamp, and that’s precisely what he set about doing. Now that he’s familiar with insider politics in Washington, knowing that his inner circle is often compromised by turncoats, informants, and adversaries, he is better poised to debate the likes of Joe Biden who has 47+ years of experience in politics.
Who Will Win?
It’s tough to predict a presidential election, as everybody knows. The electorate believed that Hillary Clinton would be successful in her campaign against Trump, but that fell on flat ears. This time around, Trump is fighting from his corner, unable to hold mass rallies and fire up his supporters. That has always been a Trump strong point, but this year due to exceptional circumstances, he will be unable to hold those rallies and electrify hundreds of thousands of people at a time. Instead, he will have to play according to the rules of the game – social media commentary, prime-time TV commercials, speeches from military bases and podiums with limited audiences, and official addresses from the White House.
Joe Biden is having a torrid time of it with all sorts of gaffes every time he speaks. He is regarded as a nice guy; a moderate who can get along with Republicans and Independents. In a hard-fought contest such as the 2020 presidential election, that likeability factor may be enough to sway the winning votes in his favor. It is clear that the battleground states are going to lean heavily towards Biden, in the absence of massive Trump impetus. In fact, it’s pretty much only those states that are going to count in the upcoming election, given that there are guaranteed strongholds for Democrats and Republicans, and it is futile wasting valuable campaign finances to shore up sure bets.
The swing states will determine the next President of the United States
It all boils down to a handful of swing states. These include Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Florida, Montana, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, and the like. Generally speaking, upper East Coast states and West Coast dates are heavily blue, while southern states and Midwestern states are heavily red. But there’s lots of grey area in between, and many states that lean blue or lean red can go either way. Trump has to win a lot more states to win the election. Biden simply needs to pick up a few swing states, and he will be the 46th President of the United States.