This, say analysts, could contribute to the “depletion” of the global economy to the costs of preventing the spread and elimination of virus.
Siluanov said about the occurrence in the economy of the “new reality”
However, the more likely they consider the assumption that the most acute phase of the impact of the spread of the coronavirus in the world economy over the summer, lasted about two quarters. In support of this hypothesis, they cite the following arguments.
first, there is reason to believe that the persistence of the coronavirus and its contagiousness will decrease with increasing air temperature, and General level of immunity in humans (as it is with other diseases – SARS and influenza), and the arrival of summer will significantly limit the rate of spread of the coronavirus. Secondly, measures to counter the spread of the virus will continue to evolve, with the selection of the most effective and focus on risk groups. Third, the medical institutions for treatment and rehabilitation of cases increase, enhanced cooperation, exchange of experience and medical specialists between countries.
IMF officially announced the global recession
Thus, under a moderately positive scenario one can expect that already in the III quarter will begin recovery of the global economy, stated in the Bulletin of the Bank of Russia.
In Russia the majority of anti-crisis measures to support businesses and the population (the vacation credit, a regulatory relief measures to banks and so on) for the period until the end of September. According to forecasts, by this time, the main will be lifted quarantine restrictions.