What can you expect Investors by 2020? I repeat here what I wrote at the beginning of December 2019 to:
A recession is unlikely (Credit Suisse)
– No recession in sight (ZKB).
– A recession could be avoided, the risks are increased significantly. (Aberdeen Standard Investment)
– The US economy over scars 2020 to a recession (St. Galler KB)
– The world economy is likely to grow to 2020 to be slightly stronger (Global Sachs)
– The global economy will grow by 2020 weaker (ZKB).
yours truly ventured a statement: “I believe in the Black Swan”,dschrieb I in the said column. Unfortunately, I have to get right. The Black Swan describes based on the best-seller of the Lebanese philosopher Nassim Taleb, is an event that cannot be predicted and the world is shaken in its foundations.
The above-mentioned forecasts are waste, and took not something. The certain money houses does not stop to strive, once again, the crystal ball. In the first week of March, Credit Suisse revised its growth forecast for the Swiss economy from 1.4 to 1 percent. And last week, the big Bank, now wrote, a recession in Switzerland would not avoid it – even if it were possible, the rate of infection with the measures taken by the Federal Council and the disciplined implementation by the population attenuate. In this positive scenario, the decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) in Switzerland to about 0.5 percent limit.
Also, Swiss Life is to shot to a forecast reasonable and predicted for Switzerland, with a GDP growth of minus 1.3 percent. UBS expects minus three percent, the ZKB with a minus four percent.
more Sympathetic, the St. Galler Kantonalbank, which has held on the Wednesday media conference according to the time as the phone conference seems to me to be there. “The case in the recession is inevitable,” said a chief Investment officer Thomas Stucki. However, it should be in the given circumstances, it is futile to want to the decline of the economic performance to quantify.
Why give banks forecasts, if you don’t know yourself, you know? They do it because it is expected of them, so to a certain extent, contrecoeur? Or you can do it, so that your Name is in the newspaper and the reader doesn’t know any more after a couple of weeks eh, what was said?
A possible answer Klaus W. Wellershoff provides in his book, “a plea for a more modest Economics”: “The allowed big media attention to strengthen their own awareness and by the way, other messages to the interested members of the Public to sell.”
finally, the Czech Economist Tomas Sedlacek: “In Greek mythology, we had the Oracle. Today, we have Economists.”
