experts had warned. For a number of years. Now he’s there, the next global Disease. And with such Power that many of the state heads of a “war”. For about three months, the novel Coronavirus spreads – and yet we are at the beginning of the pandemic.

“We are in a pandemic-Marathon at Kilometer 2 of 42,” says the virologist Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit from the Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for tropical medicine (medical establishment has treated you) in Hamburg. “China is about at km 10.”

pandemic: the beginning of The Coronavirus

at the beginning of December, perhaps already in November the first cases of a previously unknown lung disease in the Chinese metropolis of Wuhan. The Affected were previously on an animal market, which is considered to be the origin of the novel Coronavirus. Only at the 31. December reported the cases of China officially to the world health organization (WHO).

At 9. January, reports China: The lung disease is a novel Coronavirus. On the same day, a 61-Year – old who is infected with the Virus dies in the first officially recorded death toll of the pandemic. The new agents belong to the same type of Virus as the Sars Virus, it was just a different variant, says the virologist Christian Drosten of the Charité hospital in Berlin in mid-January – at that time only a few people know the man who is quickly expected to become the dominant experts voice in Germany.

That is a tiny particle capable of human societies to undermine, many believe, still hardly. “Diseases are, historically, the normal state”, stressed Karl-Heinz Leven from the Institute for the history and ethics of medicine at the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.

Coronavirus: Of regional epidemics, pandemic

in mid-January, the Virus is demonstrated for the first time outside of China – in the case of a woman in Thailand, had visited Wuhan. In Japan, hundreds of people are being infected on the cruise ship “Diamond Princess”. In South Korea, the sect of Shincheonji Church of Jesus is one of the main drivers of the outbreak.

in Europe the Virus at the end of January: In France, the first cases in Germany of infection in the case of a 33-Year-old in Bavaria. There are probably as many undiscovered infections – for example, in Italy, where at the end of February, an immense outbreak takes its course. Spain is also one of the most heavily affected countries. In mid-March, the WHO classifies the outbreak as a pandemic.

Coronavirus: The strategy

Hardly anyone would have close kept the Arsenal of measures with which States take action against the spread of the Virus: shops, Restaurants, museums, schools, day-care centres. The whole personnel of a change to the home office, production chains have come to a Standstill.

sporting events – even the Olympic games are cancelled. Borders are closed, restricted zones set up, Assembly, bans, as well as output restrictions were adopted. Over 1.5 billion people worldwide are currently allowed to leave her home hardly.

Currently, the strategy applies to “Hammer dance” in professional circles as the most effective, says Alena Buyx from the Institute for the history and ethics of medicine at the TU Munich. At the beginning of drastic measures to slow the increase would be. Then, the so – called dance-a Phase in which you will have to gradually to more normal behavior sequence return.

Coronavirus in Hamburg: screws

loosen The effect of the measures will be paid after 10 to 14 days in the case of visible, explained Schmidt-Chanasit. “You will loosen the screws first of all the Parking, which are crucial for the security of supply.” The Opening of schools and day care centers count. “Quite the very end of the football and other fun events to come.”

The Back of the global lock downs could extend over a long period of time. “As long as not a large part of the population is immune, it can spread the Virus, Yes, as before”, says Mirjam Utrecht Kretzschmar of the University medical center. “As soon as the measures are relaxed, the reproduction number to the original value, and the spread is in front of the measures. The only changes when a substantial part of the population has become immune to it.“

Coronavirus: in The coming weeks

for a natural Slowdown in the necessary prevalence of 60 to 70 percent of the population will not be reached this year, says Schmidt-Chanasit. It is even more important, the medical infrastructure is rapidly expanding – with more intensive care beds and ventilators. Because the strategy of “Hammer dance” may protect against an Overload of health systems, the long-term but immense social and economic. Although sharp measures, such as Output restrictions in many countries for days, there are increasingly critical voices.

“The rescue of human life happens to be a high economic price,” says Philip East from the Institute for the history and ethics of medicine at Hamburg University hospital UKE. The Corona-crisis could cost Germany according to calculations by the Munich-based Ifo Institute, more than half a trillion euros and more than a Million Jobs. “The costs are likely to exceed whatever economic crises or natural disasters in the last decades in Germany”, said Ifo President Clemens Fuest recently.

Corona-measures are ethically difficult

This could, in turn, the number of deaths in the course of depression, impoverishment, social dislocation, domestic violence, or heart attacks rise, fear experts. Also, the currently deferred OPs are a factor. “The measures to be taken against Corona must not more people cost of living as the Corona itself,” said Schmidt-Chanasit. “There’s a reasonable sense of proportion is important.” What time is exceed the damage caused by the standstill of the Benefits of the measures? How many lives saved outweigh how much the prosperity and social security? Ethically, an incredibly difficult question. Even if not for all.

Rather the economy, and save the grandpa – so significantly as in the past, probably no other politician in the Vice-the Governor of Texas, Dan Patrick brings this claim to the expression. He was willing to risk his life, to the United States from economic collapse, said the 69-year-old Republican, the channel Fox News. US President, Donald Trump says that the consequences of the protection measures more devastating magnitude than that of the pandemic. “You are going to lose more people, by plunging the country into a massive recession or Depression,” he argues. “More people will die.”

the world after The pandemic

a devastating recession now Threatens? Around the world in such an immense scope of it all down will the dangers in the fight against a disease, is a historical new approach and to assess, therefore, barely make comparisons, says Leven. There is the danger that you get to do it with consequences such as mass unemployment and political turmoil. “Currently to be seen in the pleasing forms of solidarity will not be the rule,” says Leven. “We will still experience some Surprises, and mostly negative.”

an Epidemic, the medical historian, had always been a Test of the political system, in terms of its credibility and the trust of the citizens in its ability to act. Historians are divided in their view as to whether the pandemic is affecting a stabilizing or destabilizing effect on the political order, says the UKE expert East.

COVID-19: Existenznöte

Large differences can be expected between rich and poor countries to the East. “The disease hits here in us on a company which is a wonderfully cared for.” This applies to both ventilation devices, and health care overall, as well as social welfare. In poor countries, loss of job lead usually directly into Existenznöte. Each plague is said to have once does not automatically mean a starving population, Leven. The threat in poorer countries.

to predict any development. “A pandemic is not to judge the man is still in the middle of it, you can,” emphasized East. Leven says: “The Whole thing is an Experiment, in which the entire population of the world is included. Everything is possible.“

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*The post “”We are published in the pandemic-Marathon at Kilometer 2 of 42″” is of Mopo. Contact with the executives here.