ALL PHOTOS the Russian Economy are five shocks in the pandemic coronavirus
Moscow-Live.ru / Akishin Vyacheslav Economic club of FBK Grant Thornton in the format of the online conference gathered leading Russian experts in Economics and Finance, to Express your opinion about what is happening in the world in pandemic coronavirus and gave a forecast for the year and the medium term
Pixabay.com Another shock is the isolation, the consequence of which is to limit the movement of goods and people
AGN Moscow / Andrey Nicorici
Economic club of FBK Grant Thornton in the format of the online conference gathered leading Russian experts in Economics and Finance, to Express an opinion about what is happening in the world withthe tie with the pandemic coronavirus and gave a forecast for the year and the medium term. The forecast was disappointing.
Economists in the world for a long time predicted the global cyclical economic crisis, a prerequisite for which was the overcapitalization of the markets. However, no event – no “Brakit”, no trade war US-China – did not fit the role of a trigger. The ideal trigger has become pandemic in the fashion industry, writes Deutsche Welle.
the Specificity of Russia lies in the fact that for her the world crisis came in conjunction with the fall in oil prices. “As the saying goes, the trouble came, open the gates. In Russia, the gates were very wide open,” says the Director of the Institute of strategic analysis FBK Grant Thornton Igor Nikolaev. However, these two shocks is not limited.
According to the head of the Economic expert group (EEG) Evsey Gurvich, Russia prepared for five shocks. The third will be the outflow of capital: “During any crisis, there has been capital flight in the developed economies. So it was in 2009. Although the epicenter of the crisis then was the United States, the capital ran out there.”
Another shock – the isolation, the consequence of which is to limit the movement of goods and people. And finally, the last shock, which the head of the EEG marked as “unique”, is the highest degree of uncertainty, where the business is deprived of the opportunity to build any plans, while tangible assistance from the state practically does not arrive.
According to the forecast of Grant Thornton, the global economy in 2020, compared to the previous year will fall by 3-5%, the U.S. GDP – by 5-10%, Russia – by 10-20%. For Russia, the current year may be the worst since 1992, when the fall of GDP, according to the world Bank amounted to 14.5%. Even in 2009, Russian GDP declined by 7.8% in 1998 and 5.3%. China is the only country that will remain in the black, however, is highly symbolic, from 0 up to 1%.
Average price of Russian Urals grade oil in 2020 may reach $ 25 per barrel, says the head of the EEG Evsei Gurvich. They had fallen below 1998 levels in the second quarter will not exceed 15 dollars per barrel.
There is little hope for future growth, which would equalize the average price for the year, but it will only be possible if the resume automobile and air travel, and also if the producing countries agreed to production cuts. However, even that will not help to compensate for reduced demand, said the Professor of the Higher school of Economics (HSE) Oleg Vyugin: “the Fall in oil demand was about 30%. A comparable reduction in production will not.”
“the World will never be the same, will change and the economy and its structure. In the same volume of oil demand will be no more, and the reduction mechanisms will give only short-term effect,” agrees Nicholas. According to him, Russia is bad, because she remained sitting on the oil needle. “It’s still very much backfire”, he warned.
“the US gives in aid to its citizens and business about 20% of GDP, the European Union, Japan 10%, Russia – 2-2,5%. Why?” – asks the Vyugin. According to him, prevents monetarism – do not want to spend every last from the national welfare Fund (NWF). “In the fall of 1998 after the default, I worked in the Ministry of Finance. We took the CB out a large loan in exchange for securities of the Ministry of Finance. The effect was positive. Occurred, the clearance of blood clots in the monetary system created liquidity in the economy. This option could be used,” he suggested.
Nikolaev has their own version. According to him, the funds in the NWF enough, but they are intended for other purposes: “Russia has waited a long time when the Fund will reach 8 trillion rubles and will exceed 7% of GDP (as of 1 April 2020 in the budget deficit was at 12.9 trillion rubles). After that, the NWF can be used for projects. Before that it was hard to raskassirovatj. And now, apparently, these funds have lined up unspoken shadow line.”
at the same time tax authorities are tightening – establish a 15 percent tax rate for those who bring income in the form of dividends to foreign accounts, and 13% for those whose total Bank deposits exceed 1 million rubles. “That is, manage to use the crisis to push through tax innovations. At this time in other countries, by contrast, reduce the tax burden in Germany, for example, to cancel the contribution of solidarity”, – said Nikolayev.
According to him, the money in the current situation should go to the people: “Even under strict quarantine they will need products and medicines. This means that the food industry, agriculture, pharmaceuticals will remain alive. The economy will shrink, but will remain alive. We need to support it, generating and supporting demand,” says the economist. According to his estimates, Russia has tens of millions of people in need of assistance. However, to rely on the generosity of the state they should not be, experts believe. “Our state used to take and not used to giving. It is the statists. In their view people are those who serve them,” says Vyugin.
as a Result of this policy will be a major social problem, says the head of the Centre for economic policy research economic faculty of Moscow state University Oleg despite the presence of the: “This is a huge loss of labour force and social capital. After the crisis will disappear for a long time Russia will not return to the same point. The man who will long remain without jobs, the labor market may not return. This threat is underestimated”.
According to the expert, “the government, through inaction multiplies the uncertainty. All decisions are made on a very short term. Will inevitably raise the production chain, and the most rational solution for entrepreneurs will be the closure of business and firing people”. And the inevitable policy changes. “In the Wake of social unrest, the power will come populists, deprived of economic and social responsibility. Nothing good in the political sense, I do not expect,” concluded despite the presence of.