Scientists are developing ways to track and even predict future resettlement of people as a result of economic factors and environmental disasters, as well as for family reasons.
Studies are based on past migration caused by extreme climatic phenomena: the dust storm that erupted in the USA in the 1930-ies, hurricanes Maria and Katrina.
Climate change affects the resettlement of more other factors. From it largely depends on the availability of jobs in a particular region.
The influx of refugees from hurricanes has shown that people tend to move on large distances. For example, in 2017, after the hurricane “Maria”, refugees from the coast of Florida (USA) reached the Central part of the state, and in particular to the city of Orlando, home to some 280,000 residents. Then had no home, no specialists or volunteers.
According to a senior adviser to the mayor of Orlando Chris Castro, today, three years after the disaster, the city has 10% of refugees from approximately 250,000 migrants. The others returned to their homes in Puerto Rico or a new home. Now the city is ready for future migrations.
Of particular concern are future migration caused by rising sea levels. By the way, the flooding threatens, in particular, of Miami, whose residents also will run in Orlando. We can expect that migrants will choose a “favorable terms” climate places like Minneapolis or Seattle, but not Florida or Texas, says ecologist-economist Amir the Genie out of the University of Chicago: “It seems counterintuitive: instead of having to move to a more comfortable city to go to a city habitable only if you can afford air conditioning”.
But there are more significant factors affecting the decision of migration: jobs, health care, infrastructure. This is indicated by the sociologist Matthew Hauer from Florida state University in Tallahassee: “Migration usually occur at short distances for economic and social reasons, among them higher-paying job.”
The survey identified 10 U.S. regions that will be most in demand by migrants fleeing by sea-level rise in 2100. This:
Austin-Round Rock, Texas;
Orlando – Kissimmee – Sanford, Florida;
Atlanta – sandy springs – Roswell, GA.;
Houston – the woodlands – sugar Land, Texas;
Dallas – Fort worth- Arlington, Texas;
Washington – Arlington – Alexandria, D.C.;
Baton Rouge, Los Angeles;
Charlotte – Concord – Gastonia, States of North and South Carolina;
Philadelphia – Camden – Wilmington, Pennsylvania-new Jersey;
Las Vegas – Henderson – Paradise, NV.
