Italy during the epidemic of the coronavirus mortality has increased several times. The official figures of the victims is in doubt
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On 31 March in Italy recorded more than 101 thousand infected with the new coronavirus, the number of deaths exceeded 11500. But in reality, the mortality during the epidemic has increased several times.
to Accurately count the number of dead is almost impossible: some argue that victims much more, as thousands of people infected with the virus get sick and die at home, without the test and the diagnosis; others argue that the death toll overstated, as the official statistics are all patients who died in hospitals after testing positive for Covid-19, but this does not mean that the cause of their death was a coronavirus.
according to the BBC, both points of view backed up by expert opinions, both confirmed the numbers and have the full right to exist.
Nembro is a small town in the province of Bergamo in Lombardy, the most severely affected Covid-19. It is located about 60 km North-East from Milan. The city’s population – about 11.5 thousand people; the official number of victims of the epidemic of the coronavirus as of the end of last week – 31.
This is not very much. Every year, according to mayor Claudio Cancelli, from January to March in Nembro usually dies around 35-40 people. But this year, for three months, to March 24, the local municipality tooe gave the townspeople 158 death certificates. This is 123 more than the average for the same period in the previous five years. Four times.
This is even more than all of last year: in 2019, Nembro in total died 120 people.
Stunned by the statistics, Claudio Cancelli asked for similar figures in the councils of neighboring cities. The results were even more shocking.
In Cernusco Sul Naviglio (population of 33 thousand people) and Pesaro (95 thousand) the total number of people who died in the period from January to March, higher than the official figure of deaths from the coronavirus in five or six times.
Not much better situation in the capital of Bergamo province with a population of 122 thousand. 1 through March 24, there died 446 inhabitants – is 4.5 times more than the average for the past five years.
A #Bergamo dall’1 al 24 marzo, i residenti dei decessi sono stati 446: 348 più della media degli ultimi anni (98).
I have officially decessi dovuti a #Covid19 nel periodo sono 136. Ce ne sono più in 212.
Con una mortalità all’of 1.5-2% i contagiati in città sarebbero tra 17 e 23mila pic.twitter.com/wnDYE1IVl3
— Giorgio Gori (@giorgio_gori) March 26, 2020
the official number of victims of coronavirus in the same period – 136. That is the real mortality rate in the city was higher by almost 3.5 times.
Even if we add the average number of deaths since the beginning of the year (98) and the number of deaths of patients who were diagnosed Covid-19 (136), the result will still be less than half the real statistics.
it is Unlikely that such a significant discrepancy in figures can be explained by one only insufficient testing of patients. Obviously, any large-scale epidemic not only kills directly, but also indirectly, writes the BBC.
the Load on the health care system is growing so rapidly that it simply ceases to cope with the influx of seriously ill patients.
the Average waiting time of a bed in intensive care in Italian hospitals is now about three hours. During this time the patient has all the chances to fill up the sad statistics – and it doesn’t matter he has the virus, bacterial pneumonia, kidney stones or heart attack.
at the same time, this reduces the number of doctors that in the scale of the epidemic also results in additional victims.
With the start of the outbreak Covid-19 Italy only formally from the coronavirus has killed more than 40 hospital staff. In total, the diagnosis Covid-19 was confirmed by more than 5000 doctors, nurses, ambulance staff and other healthcare workers. They were all forced to go into quarantine or have themselves become patients.
it is Therefore appropriate to wonder how many people died not directly from the coronavirus, and in General because of him.
the Answer to this question will soon be announced. Of Italy’s largest research Agency In.Twig has already started the research and collection of monthly statistics of mortality in all 243 municipalities in the province of Bergamo in the last five years, in order to compare them with the figures of the current year and to assess the real scale of the humanitarian disaster in the country.
“so far, the collected data (about half the population of the province) treated with scientific methods, confirm the sensational statements by the mayors of the cities of Bergamo province”, – said in an interview with the regional newspaper L’eco di Bergamo Professor in the Department of numerical methods of sociology, University of Bergamo Aldo Cristadoro.