This analysis showed the number of cases COVID-19 from the number who returned to Russia from abroad in February-March. The first wave of cases as, in particular, was confirmed by chief physician of the hospital in Kommunarka Denis Protsenko, was travelers returning from abroad. Now comes the second wave of cases – the ones that got the infection during a contact already in the country. According to the head of Rospotrebnadzor Anna Popova, the such today for a quarter of total cases. “Already 25% of cases are the contacts inside Russia”, – said Popov.
Professor of infectious diseases dispelled fakes about coronavirus
in addition, Golikova noted that it is difficult to predict the development of the situation with incidence in a short time: it depends on many variable factors, and not only from the actions undertaken by the authorities and health services but also how disciplined and responsible behavior of the population.
“I Can say that at the initial stage of the disease we have in Russia, we took the existing in the world practice a mathematical model, which uses (epidemiologists), and calculated possible scenarios for developments in our area. And then we had the opportunity to see come true or not come true (predictions). I want to say, no one forecast all the used models were not confirmed on the expiry time, because no mathematical model to date can fully account for the impact of those measures taken by a country for the relief of the situation. And, of course, each population has its own characteristics from the point of view of the disease,” – said Golikova.