For the backbone companies of the Russian Federation has developed a stress scenario with quarantine until the autumn and the new outbreak of coronavirus
Moscow-Live.ru / Akishin Vyacheslav First, the stress scenario assumes a tightening in Russia of quarantine measures, including the closure of large cities, the freezing of economic activities in Russia in the second quarter of 2020 and the increase in the number of endemic countries
AGN Moscow / Alexander Avilov
the Russian government has developed two stress scenarios for the development of the crisis in the economy, designed to test the financial stability of the backbone enterprises. Milder suggests that economic activity in the bulk will be frozen the entire second quarter of 2020, i.e. until the end of June. More stringent stipulates that quarantine measures will last for two quarters, until the end of September, RBC.
it is Reported that the scenario was to be developed by the Ministry of economic development and relevant agencies (including the Ministry of industry and trade, Ministry of energy, Ministry of transport, etc.) had to organize a stress-testing their subordinate strategic companies. Earlier plans to conduct stress test of systemically important enterprises said the Minister of economic development Maxim Reshetnikov. The results of the stress tests will be concluded on the potential problems of the organization – each of them the banks will assign a risk category. Test indicates the ability of the enterprise to meet its financial obligations for the years 2020-2022.
First, the stress scenario assumes a tightening in Russia of quarantine measures, including the closure of large cities, the freezing of economic activities in Russia in the second quarter of 2020 and the growing number of affected countries. According to him, the recovery in economic activity is expected in the second quarter in China and the third quarter in Europe.
the prices for the Russian oil Urals will remain at $20 per barrel until the end of 2020, with a subsequent recovery to $35 by the end of 2022. Inflation in Russia will amount to 4.5% for the year, and the dollar will be worth on average more than 80 rubles to the end of the year (including 80.8 per ruble in the fourth quarter).
the Second stress scenario is based on more stringent assumptions, which will be closed the main part of the territories of Russia, stopped the transport message between cities, economic activity will be frozen until the end of September, and in China and South Korea, there are new outbreaks of coronavirus infection. The recovery of economic activity in Europe and China will begin in the fourth quarter of 2020 or the first quarter of 2021, the Urals will cost $10 per barrel in the second and third quarters of the year, and by the end of 2022 will be restored to $30.
Under such conditions, inflation could reach 5.5% this year, with a subsequent slowdown to 4% in 2022. The dollar under this scenario will exceed 89 rubles in the second quarter, and then adjust to 82.2 of the ruble in the fourth quarter and will cost about 82 rubles in 2021 and 2022. GDP will shrink in any scenario. Media noted that the scenario for the stress test are not forecasts, and are used to assess the willingness of companies to extremely adverse developments. However, the first scenario of economic development is as close to average market expectations, besides last week, Urals crude oil fell to nearly $10.
Previously, the Agency Bloomberg reported citing sources that the Finance Ministry will impose the revised budget the year 2020, based on forecasted oil prices of $20 per barrel of Urals. This is consistent with the first stress scenario of economic development. Version of the official macroeconomic forecast, adjusted for the pandemic and the fall in oil prices, the Ministry of economic development promised to provide in April.
the Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting (CMASF) published three scenarios of the crisis – soft”, hard and deep. Most likely economists CMASF called the strict version of the crisis: the world economy is in crisis two years, the Russian cities because of quarantines lose 15-17% of performance, in 2020 Russia’s GDP falls to 3-3. 3%.
the Probability of a shock scenario is also quite large, comprising up to 30%. This option assumes very low oil prices, a sharp fall in Russian exports of oil and oil products. In this case loss of performance in the cities will amount to about 25%, and the decline in the economy will reach 7% in 2020. In addition, it is possible and the combination of the hard option and the active anti-crisis measures of the state, estimated at about 2.5% of GDP. Under this option, which the authors call “constructive,” a recession is possible smahcit, although it will still last at least two years.