The attacks on Crimea show that Ukraine still has a capable army. The Russians haven’t made any ground gains for weeks. Military analyst Mick Ryan names five conditions under which the Ukrainian army could still win.

According to US military analyst Mick Ryan, after last week’s alleged Ukrainian attacks on Crimea, a thought is slowly emerging that many in the West had already dismissed: could Ukraine still win the war? Statistics from the Institute for the Study of War show that Russia has not made any significant gains in territory since the beginning of July. Ryan had already given Ukraine a chance of victory at the beginning of the war. These would still exist, but only under five conditions:

Western political support is a crucial element of Ukraine’s defence. Even if the NATO countries are not there with their own troops, the arms deliveries and the system of economic sanctions against Russia would help Ukraine enormously.

“It is the main task of the Ukrainian government and its diplomats to ensure that the West has the strategic patience to support Ukraine until the end of the war,” Ryan said. But this also means that Western countries must continue to convince their people that they must fight Russian aggression and endure sanctions.

The Russian attack also affects Ukrainian industry, mining and agriculture. Ukrainian ports, which generate export revenue, were captured by the Russians, Ryan points out. All this is throwing Ukraine into a deep economic crisis. It therefore needs continued economic support from the West in order to maintain state services and bear the massive costs of the war.

The West must continue and expand arms supplies to Ukraine, Ryan said, as ammunition and equipment are being quickly consumed in the current war effort. NATO’s training program for Ukrainian soldiers must be expanded in the coming months in order to familiarize Ukrainians more quickly with Western weapons. Ryan says: “The WWII Empire Air Training Plan could be a model for expanded, distributed but joint NATO training for Ukrainian soldiers, planners and leaders.”

“I need ammunition, not a ride,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the beginning of the war, uniting his people behind him. The clear message: he stays in Ukraine and defends it with his compatriots. The focus is on his leadership, according to Ryan. It is crucial for economic, humanitarian, diplomatic, intelligence and military support. But he also praises the fact that Ukraine’s military leadership has waged a clever campaign against the Russians. This must be continued if Ukraine wants to win the war.

“Once all the other requirements are met, they’ll also be good at hand-to-hand combat, which is essential to defeating the Russians,” Ryan said. The Ukrainians must reconquer their country, which is also psychologically important. Only when more and more Ukrainian territory becomes visible on the maps will it be clear to even the last doubters that the tide has turned in Ukraine’s favour.

Ryan believes that by winter Ukrainian troops would have recaptured the southern areas, including the Black Sea towns and ports. “These offensive actions will be much more difficult than the previous largely defensive campaign. And there is no guarantee of success,” writes the military analyst.

However, Ryan does not explain whether an offensive action would also jeopardize agreements already concluded with Russia, such as on grain exports, and what influence this will have on the course of the war. He hopes that political, economic and military support from the West will turn the tide for Ukraine. He gives the West six months to “oppose the ruthless dictatorships that threaten the international order”.